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作者：PLOSSER, CI; ROUWENHORST, KG
作者单位：Yale University; University of Rochester
摘要：This paper extends previous work on the information in the term structure about future real economic growth. For the U.S. and Germany, and to a lesser extent for the U.K., we find evidence that the long end of the term structure has information about future growth of industrial production beyond expectations about future monetary policy. We also find evidence that foreign term structures can forecast domestic low frequency movements in economic activity especially in countries that experience ...
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作者：ANGELINI, P
摘要：The paper addresses the issue of the impact of the foundation of the Federal Reserve System in 1914 on the behavior of short-term interest rates. Empirical evidence is presented showing that no change of regime can be detected in the process governing short-term rates in the years straddling the foundation of the Fed. Since the behavior of this process did change in the decade 1910-1920, the paper discusses some historical events and institutional changes in the New York money market that had ...
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作者：MENDOZA, EG; RAZIN, A; TESAR, LL
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; Tel Aviv University
摘要：This paper proposes a method for computing tax rates using national accounts and revenue statistics. Using this method we construct time series of tax rates for large industrial countries. The method identifies the revenue raised by different taxes at the general government level and defines aggregate measures of the corresponding tax bases. This method yields estimates of effective tax rates on factor incomes and consumption consistent with the tax distortions faced by a representative agent ...
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作者：AMBLER, S
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作者：ROMER, CD; ROMER, DH
摘要：This paper addresses Hoover and Perez's comments on our 1989 paper. We first show that the estimated impact of monetary policy shifts remains large and ranges from marginally to strongly significant when oil shocks are controlled for. We then extend our previous work by expanding the sample period and identifying an additional policy shift in December 1988. With this extension, the estimated effects of monetary policy shifts are large and highly significant for all reasonable specifications of...
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作者：BAXTER, M
摘要：This paper investigates the link between real exchange rates and real interest differentials over the recent floating-rate period. In contrast to earlier econometric studies, we find evidence of a relationship, with the strongest link at trend and business-cycle frequencies, Because these prior studies focused on high-frequency components of the data, they found no statistical link between real exchange rates and real interest differentials.
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作者：WANG, P
摘要：This paper shows that a three-period overlapping-generations model with an inverse-V life-cycle endowment structure can generally restore the first welfare theorem without imposing price characterization conditions. Even when Walras's law fails, a Walrasian equilibrium may be optimal in a three-period model, depending on the endowment and generational structure. If middle-aged generations have sufficiently high income so that both the old and the young are net borrowers, transactions are gener...
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作者：FISCHER, S
摘要：Using a regression analog of growth accounting, I present cross-sectional and panel regressions showing that growth is negatively associated with inflation, large budget deficits, and distorted foreign exchange markets. Supplementary evidence suggests that the causation runs from macroeconomic policy to growth. The framework makes it possible to identify the channels of these effects: inflation reduces growth by reducing investment and productivity growth; budget deficits also reduce both capi...
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作者：ROMER, P
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A nation that lacks physical objects like factories and roads suffers from an object gap. A nation that lacks the knowledge used to create value in a modern economy suffers from an idea gap. Object gaps are emphasized by mainstream economists who make use of formal models and statistical hypothesis tests. Idea gaps are emphasized by dissident economists who make use of a diverse body of evidence and avoid formal models. Economists need to use the formal models from the first approach and the d...
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作者：JACKLIN, CJ
摘要：In an economy with uninsured banks, market rate deposits are shown to provide services identical to fixed rate deposits without risking banking panics as long as there is not both aggregate uncertainty, about liquidity demands and asymmetric information about bank asset quality. However, if both factors are present, then the preferred deposit form depends on the riskiness of bank assets and information revealed through market prices. The analysis may explain the evolution of fixed rate deposit...
