ASYMMETRIC BUSINESS-CYCLE TURNING-POINTS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: MCQUEEN, G; THORLEY, S
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(93)90052-H
• 发表日期: 1993
• 页码: 341-362
• 关键词: business cycles; asymmetry; turning points; Markov chains

摘要

This paper presents evidence that business cycles are characterized by 'sharp' troughs and 'round' peaks. Changes in growth rates surrounding NBER troughs are found to be larger than changes surrounding peaks, and the probability of a direct contraction to recovery transition is found to be higher than the probability of a direct recovery to contraction transition. These findings suggest caution in interpreting empirical tests of economic series that assume symmetry and motivate theoretic models in which additions to capacity, production, and employment at the end of a recession are not mirror images of the cutbacks at the end of an expansion.