Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harding, Martin; Linde, Jesper; Trabandt, Mathias
• 署名单位: Bank of Canada; International Monetary Fund; University of Gothenburg; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Goethe University Frankfurt; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.012
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 101-118
• 关键词: inflation dynamics; Inflation risk; monetary policy; Linearized model; Nonlinear model; real rigidities

摘要

We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the post-COVID period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-offbetween inflation and output stabilization when inflation is elevated. (c) 2023 Goethe University Frankfurt, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Canada. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/