-
作者：MANKIW, NG; MIRON, JA; WEIL, DN
作者单位：Harvard University; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We take issue with Angelini's (1994) claim that the founding of the Federal Reserve was not responsible for a change in the stochastic process followed by short-term interest rates. We argue that Angelini's failure to reject the null hypothesis of no regime change around the date of the founding of the Fed is due to the low power of his test.
-
作者：DIWAN, I; SPIEGEL, MM
作者单位：New York University; The World Bank
摘要：We analyze the mechanics of menu-driven debt reduction deals, similar to those recently initiated by debtor countries, in which heterogeneous banks choose freely between selling or retaining their debt claims. We show that menu deals can facilitate discrimination across heterogeneous banks because of imperfections in the secondary market for debt. This implies that menu deals are likely to dominate market buybacks and pure concerted relending agreements, particularly when banks differ widely i...
-
作者：MIRON, JA
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
-
作者：IRELAND, PN
摘要：In a simple convex model of endogenous growth, the expansionary effects of a deficit-financed tax cut are often strong enough to allow the government debt to be paid off in the long run without the need for subsequent tax increases. A permanent and substantial reduction in marginal rates of income taxation can provide for both vigorous real economic growth and long-run government budget balance.
-
作者：DUGUAY, P
摘要：This paper examines the transmission of monetary policy in Canada. It emphasizes the transmission through interest rates and the exchange rate rather than through changes in monetary aggregates and provides empirical evidence on the strength of these channels using a highly aggregated structural model. Implications of these structural equations for the dynamic effects of monetary policy are explored through a simulation analysis.
-
作者：EVANS, MDD; LEWIS, KK
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; New York University
摘要：Predictable variations in excess returns have often been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premia. In this paper, we use an insight based upon new techniques from time series analysis to test whether stationary risk premia can alone explain the behavior of excess returns to long bonds relative to rolling over short rates. Surprisingly, we reject this hypothesis using U.S. T-bill returns. We then show that either permanent shocks to the risk premia and/or rationally anticipated sh...
-
作者：THOMPSON, P; WALDO, D
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Previous models of quality improvements focus on what Schumpeter called 'competitive capitalism'. Innovating firms drive their rivals out of business. In this paper, a model which captures important aspects of Schumpter's notion of 'trustified capitalism' is developed. Innovating firms capture market share from their rivals but do not drive them out of business. Most of the results of earlier models carry over. For example, the determinants of the growth rate of quality are exactly the same as...
-
作者：BRAUN, RA
摘要：I examine the title question in a competitive framework where the transaction demand for money is modeled using a cash-in-advance constraint and only distortionary taxes are possible. Empirical evidence and simulations are used to document the plausibility of the assumptions which produce the Friedman rule; these findings suggest that it is not a good benchmark. My results suggest that an optimal monetary policy calls for nominal interest rates that can exceed 6% per year.
-
作者：HOOVER, KD; PEREZ, SJ
摘要：Christina and David Romer's paper 'Does Monetary Policy Matter?' advocates the so-called 'narrative' approach to causal inference. We demonstrate that this method will not sustain causal inference. First, it is impossible to distinguish monetary shocks from oil shocks as causes of recessions. Second, a world in which the Fed only announces intentions to act cannot be distinguished from one in which it in fact acts. Third, the techniques of dynamic simulation used in the Romers' study are inapp...
-
作者：BILS, M; CHO, JO
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Queens University - Canada
摘要：We introduce procyclical labor and capital utilization, as well as costs of rapidly increasing employment, into a business-cycle model. Plausible variations in factor utilization enable us to explain observed variability of real GNP with considerably smaller economy-wide disturbances. The costs of adjustment create very interesting and realistic lead and lag relationships: employment does not peak until a full quarter after output; workweeks, effort, capital utilization, and productivity all s...
