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作者：Rudebusch, GD
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作者：Ahmed, S; Rogers, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We test whether long-term data from the U.S. and U.K. are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint and external borrowing constraint, both individually and simultaneously. A very strong test is provided by our focus on whether the present value constraints (PVCs) continue to hold despite unusual events, such as wars, that cause a structural break in the short-run dynamic behavior of the variables. We find that the PVCs hold over the whole sample period. The data also indi...
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作者：COLE, HL; KEHOE, PJ
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A standard explanation for why sovereign governments repay their debts is that they must maintain a good reputation to easily borrow more. We show that the ability of reputation to support debt depends critically on the assumptions made about institutions. At one extreme, we assume that bankers can default on payments they owe to governments. At the other, we assume that bankers are committed to honoring contracts made with governments. We show that if bankers can default, then a government ge...
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作者：BALL, L
摘要：This paper presents a theory of the real effects of disinflation. As in New Keynesian models, price adjustment is staggered across firms. As in New Classical models, credibility is imperfect: the monetary authority may not complete a promised disinflation. The combination of imperfect credibility and staggering yields more plausible results than either of these assumptions alone. In particular, an announced disinflation reduces expected output if credibility is sufficiently low.
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作者：Zhu, XD
摘要：The present paper studies the implications of endogenous capital utilization and investor's effort on the structure and time consistency of optimal fiscal policy. The main results are that levies of old capital are distortionary and should therefore not be used at confiscatory rates, that in a steady state capital and labor income should be taxed at the same rate and investment should be subsidized at the same rate as the tax rate, and that the optimal tax policy can be made time-consistent th...
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作者：FLOOD, RP; ROSE, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. But the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes. This suggest that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be very successful. It also suggests that there is no clear tradeoff between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability.
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作者：LANG, WW; NAKAMURA, LI
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Recent explanations of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy have emphasized that riskier, lower net worth borrowers are more dependent on bank lending than larger, less risky borrowers. Evidence from the Federal Reserve's Survey on Terms of Bank Lending indicates that the proportion of relatively high quality new loans (%Safe) moves countercyclically and Granger causes GDP and inventory investment. In the aftermath of a tightening of monetary policy, the %Safe variable increases, and ...
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作者：ENGLE, RF; ISSLER, JV
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We investigate in this paper the degree of short-run and long-run comovement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoral trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral outputs from first principles. Cointegration and common-cycle tests are performed; sectoral output data seem to share a relatively high number of common trends and a relatively low number of common cycles. A special trend-cycle decomposition of the da...
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作者：DURLAUF, SN; MACCINI, LJ
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This paper has two purposes. One is to assess different models of inventory behavior in terms of their ability to approximate the realized data. We do this initially for the pure production smoothing model and then for a sequence of generalizations. Our analysis both performs specification tests as well as measures the deviations of the data from each null model through use of a noise ratio statistic. A second purpose is to explore whether observed cost shocks, in particular raw materials pric...
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作者：ROUBINI, N; SALAIMARTIN, X
摘要：This paper studies the relation between policies of financial repression, inflation rates, and long-term growth. We set up a model which shows that governments might want to repress the financial sector because this sector is an 'easy' source of resources for the public budget (the inflation tax). To the extent that the financial sector increases the efficiency of the allocation of savings to productive investment, the choice of the degree of financial development will have real effects on the...
