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作者：Lucca, David; Seru, Amit; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)
摘要：This paper traces career transitions of federal and state U.S. banking regulators from a large sample of publicly available curricula vitae, and provides basic facts on worker flows between the regulatory and private sector resulting from the revolving door. We find strong countercyclical net worker flows into regulatory jobs, driven largely by higher gross outflows into the private sector during booms. These worker flows are also driven by state-specific banking conditions as measured by loca...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Paciello, Luigi
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：Asset prices and the equity premium might reflect doubts and pessimism. Introducing these features in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model changes optimal policy in a substantial way. There are three main results: (i) asset-price movements improve the inflation-output trade-off so that average output can rise without much inflation costs; (ii) a paternalistic policymaker - maximizing the expected utility of the consumers under the true probability distribution - chooses a more accommodati...
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作者：Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O.
作者单位：Cornell University; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Existing empirical estimates of US nationwide tax multipliers vary from close to zero to very large. Using narrative measures as proxies for structural shocks to total tax revenues in an SVAR, we estimate tax multipliers at the higher end of the range: around two on impact and up to three after 6 quarters. We show that earlier findings of lower multipliers can be explained by an output elasticity of tax revenues assumption that is contradicted by empirical evidence or by failure to account for...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina; Talbert, Matthew
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Four stylized facts motivate this paper: (i) business cycle movements are wider in emerging countries (EC) than in developed ones; (ii) EC experience greater economic policy uncertainty; (iii) EC are more polarized and less politically stable; and (iv) EPU is positively related to political polarization. A standard real business cycle model augmented to incorporate political polarization, a 'polarized business cycle' (PBC) model, is shown to be consistent with these facts. We first derive our ...
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作者：Hendricks, Lutz; Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：The US experienced two dramatic changes in the structure of education in a 50 year period. The first was a large expansion of educational attainment; the second, an increase in test score gaps between college-bound and non-college-bound students. This paper documents the impact of these two trends on the composition of school groups by ability and the importance of these composition effects for wages. The main finding is that there is a growing gap between the abilities of high school and coll...
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作者：Peretto, Pietro F.; Seater, John J.
作者单位：Duke University; North Carolina State University
摘要：Perpetual growth requires offsetting diminishing returns to reproducible factors of production. In this article we present a theory of factor elimination. For simplicity and clarity, there is no augmentation of non-reproducible factors, thus excluding the standard engine of growth. By spending resources on R&D, agents learn to change the exponents of a Cobb-Douglas production function. We obtain the economy's balanced growth path and complete transition dynamics. The theory provides a mechanis...
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作者：Massa, Massimo; Zhang, Lei
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; Nanyang Technological University
摘要：The relative availability of bond and bank financing should affect the firm's external financing and investment decisions. We define a measure that proxies for the regional borrowing inflexibility to substitute between bank and bond financing: debt inflexibility. Debt inflexibility tilts the firm's financial structure towards equity and reduces investment. The impact is stronger during the period of tight monetary policy, particularly for smaller firms and firms without banking relationships. ...
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作者：Telyukova, Irina A.; Visschers, Ludo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Edinburgh
摘要：Precautionary demand for money is significant in the data, and may have important implications for business-cycle dynamics of velocity and other nominal aggregates. Accounting for such dynamics is a standing challenge in monetary macroeconomics: standard business-cycle models that have incorporated money have failed to generate realistic predictions in this regard. In those models, the only uncertainty affecting money demand is aggregate. We investigate a model with uninsurable idiosyncratic u...
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作者：Johnson, Simon; Larson, William; Papageorgiou, Chris; Subramanian, Arvind
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University; Johns Hopkins University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we. show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies: that the methodology deployed to estimate growth rates leads to systematic variability, which is greater: at higher data frequencies, for smaller countries, and the farther the estimate from the benchmark year. Moreover, th...
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作者：Feiveson, Laura
