A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O.
署名单位：
Cornell University; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0304-3932
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.04.004
发表日期：
2014
页码：
S1-S19
关键词：
摘要：
Existing empirical estimates of US nationwide tax multipliers vary from close to zero to very large. Using narrative measures as proxies for structural shocks to total tax revenues in an SVAR, we estimate tax multipliers at the higher end of the range: around two on impact and up to three after 6 quarters. We show that earlier findings of lower multipliers can be explained by an output elasticity of tax revenues assumption that is contradicted by empirical evidence or by failure to account for measurement error in narrative series of tax shocks. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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