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作者：Becker, Bo; Ivashina, Victoria
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We quantify fluctuations in bank-loan supply in the time-series by studying firms substitution between loans and bonds using firm-level data. Any firm that raises new debt must have a positive demand for external funds. Conditional on the issuance of new debt, we interpret firms' switching from loans to bonds as a contraction in bank-credit supply. We find strong evidence of this substitution at times that are characterized by tight lending standards, depressed aggregate lending, poor bank per...
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作者：Broner, Fernando; Erce, Aitor; Martin, Alberto; Ventura, Jaume
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Banco de Espana
摘要：In 2007, countries in the euro zone periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocated from the private sector to the public sector, reducing investment and deepening the recessions even further. To acc...
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作者：Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; Rivera, Carlos Velasco
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Princeton University
摘要：Using Bank of England voting data, we show empirically that members' votes are driven by heterogeneous individual assessments of the economy as well as their individual policy preferences. Estimates indicate that internal committee members form more precise assessments than externals and are also more hawkish. The estimates allow the first quantification of the gain due to information aggregation on monetary policy committees. The marginal gain from additional committee members tapers quickly ...
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作者：Lago Alves, Sergio Afonso
作者单位：Central Bank of Brazil
摘要：The literature has long agreed that the divine coincidence holds in standard New Keynesian models: the monetary authority is able to simultaneously stabilize inflation and output gap in response to preference and technology shocks. I show that the divine coincidence holds only when inflation is stabilized at exactly zero. Even small deviations from zero generate policy trade-offs. I demonstrate this result using the model's non-linear equilibrium conditions to avoid biases from log-linearizati...
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作者：Hautcoeur, Pierre-Cyrille; Riva, Angelo; White, Eugene N.
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：When faced with a run on a systemically important but insolvent bank in 1889, the Banque de France pre-emptively organized a lifeboat to ensure that depositors were protected and an orderly liquidation could proceed. To protect the Banque from losses on its lifeboat loan, a guarantee syndicate was formed penalizing those who had participated in the copper speculation that had caused the crisis bringing the bank down. Creation of the syndicate and other actions were consistent with mitigating t...
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作者：Hall, George J.; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Brandeis University; New York University
摘要：In 1790, a U.S. paper dollar was widely held in disrepute (something shoddy was not 'worth a Continental'). By 1879, a U.S. paper dollar had become 'as good as gold'. These outcomes emerged from how the U.S. federal government financed three wars: the American Revolution, the War of 1812, and the Civil War. In the beginning, the U.S. government discriminated greatly in the returns it paid to different classes of creditors; but that pattern of discrimination diminished over time in ways that ev...
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作者：Kitao, Sagiri
作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY)
摘要：A general equilibrium life-cycle model is developed, in which individuals choose a sequence of saving and labor supply faced with search frictions and uncertainty in longevity, health status and medical expenditures. Unemployed individuals decide whether to apply for disability insurance (DI) benefits if eligible. We investigate the effects of cash transfer and in-kind Medicare component of the DI system on the life-cycle employment. Without Medicare benefits, DI coverage could fall significan...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：International business cycle transmission through integrated financial markets occurs through wealth and balance sheet effects. Balance sheet effects lead to business cycle convergence, but wealth effects lead to divergence. This paper shows empirically that debt market integration has a positive effect on co-movement, implying that balance sheet effects are the main conduit for international transmission through integrated debt markets. Equity market integration has a negative effect, implyin...
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作者：Sedlacek, Petr
作者单位：University of Bonn
摘要：During the last recession, new hires were lower than what would be predicted by a standard matching function and the observed ratio of searching workers and firms. This paper first estimates U.S. match efficiency as an exogenous residual in the matching function using a simple search and matching model. It finds match efficiency to be procyclical and to account for about 1/4 of unemployment increases during the most severe recessions. Second, this paper proposes a model with endogenous separat...
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作者：Bergin, Paul R.; Glick, Reuven; Wu, Jyh-Lin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; National Sun Yat Sen University
摘要：The extreme persistence of real exchange rates found commonly in post-Bretton Woods data does not hold in the preceding fixed exchange rate period, when the half-life was roughly half as large in our sample. This finding supports sticky price models as an explanation for real exchange rate behavior, extending the classic argument of Mussa (1986) from a focus on short-run volatility to long-run dynamics. Two thirds of the rise in real exchange rate variance observed across exchange rate regimes...
