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作者：Dellas, Harris; Niepelt, Dirk
作者单位：University of Bern; Study Center Gerzensee; University of Bern
摘要：We develop a sovereign debt model with heterogeneous creditors (private and official) where the probability of default depends on both the level and the composition of debt. Higher exposure to official lenders improves incentives to repay due to more severe sanctions but it is also costly because it lowers the value of the sovereign's default option. The model can account for the co-existence of private and official lending, the time variation in their shares in total debt as well as the low r...
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作者：Hjortsoe, Ida
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：This paper analyses optimal fiscal policy within a model of a monetary union in which agents cannot perfectly insure themselves against country-specific shocks. I show that optimal cooperative fiscal policies consist in more than just stabilizing output gaps: policy makers can increase welfare by responding to sub-optimal intra-union imbalances. Numerical analysis reveals that if traded goods are little substitutable, optimal cooperative fiscal policies consist in setting government spending i...
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作者：Bretscher, Lorenzo; Julliard, Christian; Rosa, Carlo
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We study the implications of human capital hedging for international portfolio choice. First, we document that, at the household level, the degree of home country bias in equity holdings is increasing in the labor income to financial wealth ratio. Second, we show that a heterogeneous agent model in which households face short selling constraints and labor income risk, calibrated to match both micro and macro labor income and asset returns data, can both rationalize this finding and generate a ...
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作者：Lake, James; Linask, Maia K.
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; University of Richmond
摘要：Conventional wisdom says that tariffs are counter-cyclical. We analyze the relationship between business cycles and applied MFN tariffs using a disaggregated product-level panel dataset covering 72 countries between 2000 and 2011. Strikingly, and counter to conventional wisdom, we find that tariffs are pro-cyclical. Further investigation reveals that this pro-cyclicality is driven by the tariff setting behavior of developing countries; tariffs are acyclical in developed countries. We present e...
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作者：Costa, Francisco; Garred, Jason; Pessoa, Joao Paulo
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; University of Ottawa; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：A recent boom in commodities-for-manufactures trade between China and other developing countries has led to much concern about the losers from rising import competition in manufacturing, but little attention on the winners from growing Chinese demand for commodities. Using census data for Brazil, we find that local labour markets more affected by Chinese import competition experienced slower growth in manufacturing wages between 2000 and 2010. However, we observe faster wage growth in location...
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作者：Glaser, Darrell J.; Rahman, Ahmed S.
作者单位：United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; United States Naval Academy
摘要：This paper tests an implication of the hypothesis that hegemons provide increased global stability and thus promote international commerce. Specifically, we measure the influence of naval power projections on global trade during the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, a time of relative peace and robust commercial activity. We use archival data on the navies of Britain, France, the United States and Germany, capturing longitudinal measures of ship deployment, tonnage, and ship personnel. Fir...
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作者：Bahadir, Berrak; Gumus, Inci
作者单位：Ozyegin University; Sabanci University
摘要：This paper analyzes the differential effects of household and business credit dynamics on business cycles in emerging market economies. We first provide evidence that existing results relating credit expansions to economic expansions, real exchange rate appreciations and trade deficits hold more strongly for household credit than business credit. Then, using a two-sector real business cycle model of a small open economy, we study the model dynamics generated by shocks to household credit and b...
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作者：Lake, James; Yildiz, Halis M.
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Toronto Metropolitan University
摘要：Casual observation reveals a striking phenomenon of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs): while Customs Unions (CUs) are only intra-regional, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are inter and intra-regional. Using a farsighted dynamic model, we endogenize the equilibrium path of PTAs among two close countries and one far country. Rising transport costs mitigate the cost of discrimination faced by the far country as a CU nonmember and diminish the value of preferential access as a CU member. Thus, suf...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Liu, Chenxin; Mendoza, Enrique G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We study optimal macroprudential policy in a model in which unconventional shocks, in the form of news about future fundamentals and regime changes in world interest rates, interact with collateral constraints in driving the dynamics of financial crises. These shocks strengthen incentives to borrow in good times (i.e. when good news about future fundamentals coincide with a low-world-interest-rate regime), thereby increasing vulnerability to crises and enlarging the pecuniary externality due t...
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作者：Engel, Charles; Staiger, Robert W.
