Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lake, James; Linask, Maia K.
• 署名单位: Southern Methodist University; University of Richmond
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.09.007
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 124-146
• 关键词: Applied tariff; business cycle; Terms of trade; market power

摘要

Conventional wisdom says that tariffs are counter-cyclical. We analyze the relationship between business cycles and applied MFN tariffs using a disaggregated product-level panel dataset covering 72 countries between 2000 and 2011. Strikingly, and counter to conventional wisdom, we find that tariffs are pro-cyclical. Further investigation reveals that this pro-cyclicality is driven by the tariff setting behavior of developing countries; tariffs are acyclical in developed countries. We present evidence that pro-cyclical market power drives the pro-cyclicality of tariffs in developing countries, providing further evidence of the importance of terms of trade motivations in explaining trade policy. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.