Ex Tridenti Mercatus? Sea-power and maritime trade in the age of globalization

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Glaser, Darrell J.; Rahman, Ahmed S.
• 署名单位: United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; United States Naval Academy
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.03.001
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 95-111
• 关键词: trade; Arms race; 19th century; WAR; mercantilism; Naval power

摘要

This paper tests an implication of the hypothesis that hegemons provide increased global stability and thus promote international commerce. Specifically, we measure the influence of naval power projections on global trade during the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, a time of relative peace and robust commercial activity. We use archival data on the navies of Britain, France, the United States and Germany, capturing longitudinal measures of ship deployment, tonnage, and ship personnel. First we develop an empirical naval arms race model, and demonstrate that the navies of Britain and France in particular responded rigorously to each other. We then use our estimates of naval power projected around the world by Britain and France to measure their effects on bilateral trade in a panel-data gravity model. Results indicate that while navies had some positive impact on their own nation's trade, other nations' trade suffered. Our results show that rather than bolster globalization, the first global arms race damaged commercial interests and lowered trade potential around the world. Published by Elsevier B.V.