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作者：Del Prete, Davide; Rungi, Armando
作者单位：IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca
摘要：In this paper, we study the organization of Global Value Chains on a sample of about 4000 manufacturing parent companies integrating more than 90,000 affiliates in 150 countries. Assuming a technological sequence of production stages, a recent property rights framework (Antras and Chor, 2013; Alfaro et al., 2015) predicts that vertical integration decisions are crucially based on both the position of a supplier along the chain and on the relative size of demand elasticities faced by the final-...
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作者：Chamon, Marcos; Garcia, Marcin; Souza, Laura
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：In the aftermath of the taper tantrum, the Central Bank of Brazil announced a major program of sterilized foreign exchange intervention. We use a synthetic control approach to estimate its impact on the level and volatility of the exchange rate. Our counterfactual results, based on the experience of other emerging markets, indicate the program led to an appreciation of the Brazilian real in excess of 10%. Some of our estimates also point to a decline in the option-implied volatility. A second ...
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作者：French, Scott
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：This paper applies a widely-used class of quantitative trade models to evaluate the usefulness of measures of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in academic and policy analyses. I find that, while commonly-used indexes are generally not consistent with theoretical notions of comparative advantage, certain indexes can be usefully employed for certain tasks. I explore several common uses of RCA indexes and show that different indexes are appropriate when attempting to (a) uncover countries' fu...
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作者：Saia, Alessandro
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：In this paper we provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and its main trading partners if the UK had joined the euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation, we employ the synthetic control method. We show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and eurozone members would have been 16% higher if the UK had adopted the euro. We also provide an estimate of the (hypothetical) euro's effect on trade flows between the U...
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作者：Danziger, Eliav
作者单位：Simon Fraser University
摘要：I develop and calibrate a dynamic general-equilibrium trade model with endogenous skill demand and supply. Simulations show that removing US trade barriers would lead to aggregate gains in the United States of 4.5%. Individual workers' gains, however, depend on their education, age and birth cohort. The biggest winners, the oldest educated workers alive during trade liberalization, gain 6.7%, while their uneducated peers gain the least, only 1.2%. A major finding is that ignoring either the en...
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作者：Beverelli, Cosimo; Fiorini, Matteo; Hoekman, Bernard
作者单位：World Trade Organization; European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the effect of services trade restrictions on manufacturing productivity for a broad cross-section of countries at different stages of economic development. Decreasing services trade restrictiveness has a positive impact on the manufacturing sectors that use services as intermediate inputs in production. We identify a critical role of institutions in importing countries in shaping this effect. Countries with high institutional quality benefit the most from lower services trade restrict...
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作者：Chen, Bo; Yu, Miaojie; Yu, Zhihao
作者单位：Huazhong University of Science & Technology; Peking University; Carleton University
摘要：Using Chinese firm-level production data, this paper developed a Mincer (1974)-type approach to investigate the impact of input trade liberalization on firms' wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers (or skill premium). When controlling for product-market tariffs in a firm's industry, we find robust evidence that reduced input tariffs in a firm's industry are associated with a higher skill premium at firms with more skilled workforces. This effect is more pronounced at ordinary (n...
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作者：Naito, Takumi
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; Waseda University
摘要：How do reallocations across heterogeneous firms induced by unilateral trade liberalization affect long-run growth and welfare? To answer this question, we formulate a two-country model of endogenous growth, heterogeneous firms, and asymmetric countries. The relative wage and number of domestic varieties are endogenously determined. We show that even unilateral trade liberalization can raise the balanced growth rate. Although growth-enhancing trade liberalization is always welfare-enhancing in ...
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作者：Curuk, Malik; Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague
作者单位：Bogazici University; Universite Catholique Louvain; Tilburg University
摘要：This paper shows that inter-sectoral labor reallocation is affected by the similarity of the occupational mix of industries within a local labor market. We develop a theory-based measure of occupational similarity between industries and show how geographic proximity to industries using similar occupations raises the ability of an industry to respond to aggregate shocks. Using data on the employment growth of region-industry pairs in the U.S., we confirm empirically that an industry's employmen...
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作者：Ca'Zorzi, Michele; Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michal
作者单位：Narodowy Bank Polski; Warsaw School of Economics; European Central Bank
摘要：We run an exchange rate forecasting horse race, which highlights that three principles hold. First, forecasts should not replicate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in sample. Second, models should exploit the mean reversion of the real exchange rate over long horizons. Third, they should account for the international price co-movement seen in the data. Abiding by the first two principles an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model performs well in forecast...
