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作者：Buzard, Kristy
作者单位：Syracuse University
摘要：In an environment where international trade agreements must be enforced via promises of future cooperation, the presence of an import-competing lobby has important implications for optimal punishments. When lobbies work to disrupt trade agreements, a Nash reversion punishment scheme must balance two conflicting objectives. Longer punishments help to enforce cooperation by increasing the government's costs of defecting, but, because the lobby prefers the punishment outcome, this also incentiviz...
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作者：Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：New York University
摘要：This paper studies the optimal choice of sovereign debt maturity when investors are unaware of the government's willingness to repay. Under a pooling equilibrium there is a wedge between the borrower's true default risk and the default risk priced in debt, and its size differs with the maturity of debt. Safe borrowers tilt their debt maturity towards short-term - relative to the optimal choice under perfect information - since long-term debt pools more default risk that is not inherent to them...
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作者：Temple, Jonathan; Van de Sijpe, Nicolas
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of Sheffield
摘要：This paper introduces a new 'supply-push' instrument for foreign aid, to be used together with an instrumental variable estimator that filters out unobserved common factors. We use this instrument to study the effects of aid on macroeconomic ratios, and especially the ratios of consumption, investment, imports and exports to GDP. We cannot reject the hypothesis that aid is fully absorbed rather than used to build foreign reserves or exiting as capital flight, nor do we find evidence of Dutch D...
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作者：Alberola, Enrique; Benigno, Gianluca
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates demand and has long-run implications on the sectoral allocation of labor. If dynamic productivity gains are concentrated in the traded good sector, the commodity boom crowds out the traded sector and delays convergence to the world tech...
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作者：Swiecki, Tomasz
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Howlarge are the welfare gains from trade when factors are misallocated due to domestic distortions? In this paper I provide a theoretical and a quantitative answer to this question by incorporating distortions to the allocation of labor across sectors into a Ricardian trade model. Applying the model to data for a diverse set of countries I find that (1) gains from trade for net exporters in sectors with low marginal product of labor are overstated in models that abstract from intersectoral di...
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作者：Alfaro, Laura; Chari, Anusha; Kanczuk, Fabio
作者单位：Harvard University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Universidade de Sao Paulo
摘要：This paper evaluates the effects of capital controls on firm-level stock returns and real investment using data from Brazil. On average, there is a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns consistent with an increase in the cost of capital for Brazilian firms following capital control announcements. Large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external-finance-dependent firms, and capital controls on equity inflows have a more neg...
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作者：Boileau, Martin; Normandin, Michel
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：We study the role played by fluctuations in the price of imported capital in determining the behavior of consumption fluctuations in developing countries. For this, we decompose the price of imported capital into common and country-specific components, where the common component is the price of capital in the US. Empirically, we document that, in contrast to small industrialized countries, consumption in developing countries responds more than output to unexpected changes in the price of capit...
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作者：Feng, Ling; Li, Zhiyuan; Swenson, Deborah L.
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Fudan University; Fudan University; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：This paper studies how reduction in trade policy uncertainty affects firm export decisions. Using a firm-product level dataset on Chinese exports to the United States and the European Union in the years surrounding China's WTO accession, we provide strong evidence that reduction in trade policy uncertainty simultaneously induced firm entries to and firm exits from export activity within fine product-level markets. In addition, we uncover accompanying changes in export product prices and qualit...
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作者：Holston, Kathryn; Laubach, Thomas; Williams, John C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest-the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances- have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and ...
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作者：Crino, Rosario; Ogliari, Laura
作者单位：Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Bocconi University
摘要：We study how financial imperfections affect product quality across countries and industries, and analyze the implications for trade flows and prices. To this purpose we assemble a unique data set, which contains estimates of export quality, financial development, and financial vulnerability, for all countries and manufacturing industries over the last three decades. We find the interplay between cross-country differences in financial frictions and cross-industry differences in financial vulner...
