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作者：Cozzi, Guido; Davenport, Margaret
作者单位：University of St Gallen; University of St Gallen
摘要：How long shall a country take to learn the world technological frontier? What would happen if that country found the same difficulties in learning the true model of its economy? After all, countries catching up often experience life-changing transformations during the catch-up to a balanced growth path. We show that an open economy, learning rational expectations alongside foreign technology, may be characterized by excessive saving and current account surpluses, as often observed in the data ...
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作者：Kamber, Gunes; Theodoridis, Konstantinos; Thoenissen, Christoph
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Bank of England; University of Sheffield; Reserve Bank of New Zealand
摘要：The focus of this paper is on news-driven business cycles in small open economies. We make two significant contributions. First, we develop a small open economy model where the presence of financial frictions permits the replication of business cycle co-movements in response to news shocks. Second, we use VAR analysis to identify news shocks using data on four advanced small open economies. We find that expected shocks about the future Total Factor Productivity generate business cycle co-movem...
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作者：Danisewicz, Piotr; Reinhardt, Dennis; Sowerbutts, Rhiannon
作者单位：University of Bristol; Bank of England
摘要：This paper examines whether the organizational form of multinational banks' foreign affiliates affects cross border spillovers of macroprudential regulation. We compare changes in the growth of lending provided by foreign banks' branches versus subsidiaries in the United Kingdom in response to changes in capital requirements, lending standards and reserve requirements in foreign banks' home countries. Our results suggest that a tightening of capital requirements at home reduces UK branches' in...
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作者：Manova, Kalina; Yu, Zhihong
作者单位：University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Nottingham; Fudan University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We examine the global operations of multi-product firms. We present a flexible heterogeneous-firm trade model with either limited or strong scope for quality differentiation. Using customs data for China during 2002-2006, we empirically establish that firms allocate activity across products in line with a product hierarchy based on quality. Firms vary output quality across their products by using inputs of different quality levels. Their core competence is in varieties of superior quality that...
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作者：Jacks, David S.; Yan, Se; Zhao, Liuyan
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Peking University; Peking University
摘要：To what degree were Chinese financial markets integrated with the rest of the world prior to the 1949 Revolution and to what extent was the Chinese foreign exchange market efficient during this period? We estimate silver points for the Shanghai market from 1905 to 1933 to answer these questions. Our inferred measures are small in value, favorably match measured costs of the silver trade derived from contemporary accounts, and fare well in the comparison to estimates of trans-Atlantic gold poin...
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作者：Pelli, Martino; Tschopp, Jeanne
作者单位：University of Sherbrooke; Toronto Metropolitan University
摘要：The comparative advantage of countries evolves over time, yet firms do not continuously adapt their production structure to this evolution. This slow adaptation may be due to high adjustment costs, such as those associated with the disposal of existing physical capital. In practice, these costs may explain why we observe that countries export goods at both ends of the comparative advantage spectrum. This article investigates what happens if the cost of adjusting to the dynamics of comparative ...
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作者：Scholl, Almuth
作者单位：University of Konstanz
摘要：This paper develops a stochastic dynamic politico-economic model of sovereign debt to analyze the interaction of sovereign default risk and political turnover. Two parties differ in their preferred size of unproductive public spending which is financed by taxes and external debt. Electoral outcomes are characterized by the economic benefits from the incumbent's policies and stochastic idiosyncratic ideological aspects. Quantitative findings suggest that endogenous political turnover increases ...
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作者：Antras, Pol; de Gortari, Alonso; Itskhoki, Oleg
作者单位：Harvard University; Princeton University
摘要：This paper studies the welfare implications of trade opening in a world in which trade raises aggregate income but also increases income inequality, and in which redistribution needs to occur via a distortionary income tax-transfer system. We provide tools to characterize and quantify the effects of trade opening on the distribution of disposable income (after redistribution). We propose two adjustments to standard measures of the welfare gains from trade: a 'welfarist' correction inspired by ...
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作者：Kulish, Mariano; Rees, Daniel M.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Reserve Bank of Australia
摘要：The development of Asia exposed commodity-exporting economies to unprecedented changes in their terms of trade. Using a small open economy model we estimate changes in the long-run level and variance of Australia's terms of trade and study the quantitative implications of these changes. An innovation of our analysis is to account in estimation for structural changes in the terms of trade. We find that long-run commodity prices increased by 35% in mid-2003 and that the volatility of shocks to c...
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作者：Catao, Luis A. V.; Mano, Rui C.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature has found that sovereigns with a history of default are charged only a small and/or short-lived premium on the interest rate warranted by observable fundamentals. We re-assess this view using a metric of such a default premium (DP) that nests previous metrics and applying it to a much broader dataset. We find a sizeable and persistent DP: in 1870-1938, it averaged 250bps upon market re-entry, tapering to around 150bps five years out; in 1970-2014 the respective estimates are abo...
