Has globalization changed the international transmission of US monetary policy?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boeck, Maximilian; Mori, Lorenzo
• 署名单位: University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Padua
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Monetary policy; International spillovers; TVP-VARs

摘要

We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing-a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysis and counterfactual simulations suggest that the estimated amplification of the spillover effects over time has been primarily driven by the surge in trade integration, while rising financial integration has contributed only modestly.