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作者：Faust, J; Rogers, JH; Wright, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We examine the real-time forecasting performance of standard exchange rate models, using dozens of different vintages of data. Favorable evidence of long-horizon exchange rate predictability for the DM and Yen found in Mark (American Economic Review 1995;85:201-218) is present in only a two-year window of data vintages around that originally used. Approximately one-third of the improved forecasting performance over a random walk is eventually undone by data revisions. We also find the models c...
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作者：Peretto, PF
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of integration in a world economy populated by global oligopolists. In economies that move from autarky to trade, growth and welfare rise because exit of domestic firms is more than compensated by entry of foreign firms so that integration generates a larger, more competitive market where firms have access to a larger body of technological spillovers that support faster growth. The effects of a gradual reduction of tariffs are different because...
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作者：Chisik, R
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida International University
摘要：A notable feature of many recent trade agreements is the gradual, rather than immediate, reduction of trade barriers. In this paper we model trade liberalization as a cooperative relationship that evolves gradually in a non-cooperative environment. We show that specialization, capacity irreversibility and the development of trade-partner specific capital increase the benefit of continuing the liberalizing relationship and decrease, over time, the lowest obtainable self-enforcing tariff. By inc...
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作者：Lai, ELC; Qiu, LD
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We build a multi-sectoral North-South trade model to analyze international intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. By comparing the Nash equilibrium IPR protection standard of the South (the developing countries) with that of the North (the developed countries), we find that the former is naturally weaker than the latter. Moreover, we show that both regions can gain from an agreement that requires the South to harmonize its IPR standards with those of the North, and the North to liberal...
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作者：Bradford, S
作者单位：Brigham Young University
摘要：This paper develops a model of protection and tests it using US data, including new protection measures. We find that protection in an industry increases with its employment but not with its level of output. We also find that lobbying entails significant transactions costs. We have limited evidence that industry characteristics, such as the number of firms and geographical concentration, affect protection. Nested tests imply that assuming lumpsum rebating of import revenues or rents is justifi...
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作者：Okajima, Y
摘要：In [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 333], Larry Qiu developed a model of an optimal export promotion policy under asymmetric information. In the Bertrand competition, he shows that the expected welfare is larger under the uniform policy than under the separation-inducing policy. Actually, in this note, we show that no such separating equilibrium exists. Although his main conclusion in the Bertrand competition analysis is unaffected, his reasoning in the paper is misleading. (C) 20...
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作者：Cadot, O; de Melo, J; Olarreaga, M
作者单位：The World Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Geneva
摘要：In a political-economy setting where tariffs and duty drawbacks are endogenously chosen through industry lobbying, it is shown that full duty-drawbacks are granted to exporters who use imported intermediates in their production. This in turn decreases their incentives to counter-lobby against high tariffs on their inputs. In equilibrium, higher tariffs will be observed on these goods. The creation of a regional block will change the political equilibrium. Duty-drawbacks will be eliminated on i...
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作者：Greaney, TM
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa
摘要：This paper considers the impact of business and social networks on international trade and FDI. I propose that differences in the strength of network effects across countries can produce asymmetric trade and investment flows that may lead to trade friction. A firm from a country with strong network effects has a cost advantage in selling to buyers from its own country. This advantage results in lower inward FDI, lower total imports but larger volumes of reverse imports into the country with st...
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作者：Kortum, S
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
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作者：Dixit, A; Lambertini, L
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Princeton University
摘要：We consider the interaction between the monetary policy in a monetary union, and the separate fiscal policies of the member countries. We use a Barro-Gordon-type model extended to many countries and fiscal policies. Each country's fiscal policies inflict externalities on other countries, and the common monetary policy has its time-consistency problem. But if the two types of policymakers agree about the ideal levels of output and inflation, then this ideal is attained despite disagreements abo...
