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作者：Yi, KM
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
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作者：Ize, A; Yeyati, EL
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：We present a portfolio model of financial intermediation in which currency choice is determined by hedging decisions on both sides of a bank's balance sheet. We show that minimum variance portfolio (MVP) allocations provide a natural benchmark to estimate the scope for dollarization of assets and liabilities (financial dollarization) as a function of macroeconomic uncertainty. Within this benchmark, we find that financial dollarization displays high persistence whenever the expected volatility...
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作者：Debaere, P; Demiroglu, U
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Congressional Budget Office
摘要：We study the production side of the Heckscher-Ohlin model empirically. The evidence we present suggests that the endowments of countries around the world are too dissimilar for all countries to be able to produce the same set of goods. In contrast, the endowments of the rich OECD countries are sufficiently similar, so that these countries do not have to specialize in different subsets of goods. Our findings have implications for a variety of issues ranging from the trade and wages debate to ec...
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作者：Beetsma, R; Jensen, H
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We show how a stability pact based on deficit sanctions eliminates the exacerbation of debt accumulation that may arise from monetary unification. Moreover, with sanctions contingent on the observed state of the economy, the pact avoids aggravating the situation of a country in recession. Moral hazard problems arise if the state also depends on unobservable, politically costly fiscal effort. This could explain why sanctions under the actual Stability and Growth Pact are only automatically waiv...
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作者：Razin, A; Sadka, E; Coury, T
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; Cornell University
摘要：In the presence of economies of scale in the investment technology, trade openness may have non-conventional effects on the level of investment, its cyclical behavior, and the volatility of the terms of trade. Trade openness may lead to boom-bust cycles of investment supported by self-fulfilling expectations. The economy may oscillate between 'optimistic' expectations, 'good' terms-of-trade and investment boom to 'pessimistic' expectations, 'bad' terms-of-trade and investment bust. We also sug...
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作者：Taylor, AM
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
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作者：Kraay, A
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Or do they have the perverse effect of increasing the probability of a devaluation of the currency under attack? Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in developed and developing economies, this paper argues that the answer to both questions is 'no'. In particular, this paper documents a striking lack of any systematic association whatsoever between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attack...
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作者：Chen, YC; Rogoff, K
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Harvard University
摘要：This paper looks at real exchange rate behavior by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the US dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical mod...
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作者：Head, AC; Smith, GW
作者单位：Queens University - Canada
摘要：Euro-interest rates are well-known to be persistent, as are their differentials across countries for a given maturity. The international CCAPM implies that the rates are persistent because forecasts of national consumption growth or inflation are persistent too. We examine this prediction for a panel of countries. The standard CCAPM with power utility is augmented to allow for external habit, government consumption, and adaptive learning. In all cases, we find little evidence that the persiste...
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作者：Klein, MW; Schuh, S; Triest, RK
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Welfare gains from trade are reduced by adjustment costs associated with factor reallocation, but most studies of the effects of trade on labor markets focus only on net employment change. This paper takes a step toward identifying trade-related adjustment costs by estimating the effects of real exchange rates on labor reallocation using a new model of gross job creation and destruction applied to detailed U.S. manufacturing industries between 1973 and 1993. Trend real exchange rates significa...
