Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kraay, A
• 署名单位: The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(02)00021-1
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 297-321
• 关键词: speculative attacks; interest rate defense

摘要

Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Or do they have the perverse effect of increasing the probability of a devaluation of the currency under attack? Drawing on evidence from a large sample of speculative attacks in developed and developing economies, this paper argues that the answer to both questions is 'no'. In particular, this paper documents a striking lack of any systematic association whatsoever between interest rates and the outcome of speculative attacks. The lack of clear empirical evidence on the effects of high interest rates during speculative attacks mirrors the theoretical ambiguities on this issue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.