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作者：Kehoe, Timothy J.; Rossbach, Jack; Ruhl, Kim J.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; New York University
摘要：This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). We evaluate the ability of our methodology to account for the industry-level variation in export growth by using our model to predict the growth in industry trade from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We show that our method performs significantly better than the applied gener...
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作者：Liao, Wei; Santacreu, Ana Maria
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; INSEAD Business School; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more strongly correlated business cycles. Yet, traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and business cycle comovement We propose that fluctuations in the number of varieties embedded in trade flows may drive the observed comovement by increasing the correlation among trading partners' aggregate productivity. Our hypothesis is that business cycles should be more strongly correlated between cou...
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作者：Cherkashin, Ivan; Demidova, Svetlana; Kee, Hiau Looi; Krishna, Kala
作者单位：Australian National University; McMaster University; The World Bank; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We build a tractable partial equilibrium model in the spirit of Melitz (2003) to help understand the role of trade preferences given to developing countries, as well as the efficacy of various subsidy policies. The model allows for firm level heterogeneity in both demand and productivity and lets the mass of firms that enter be endogenous. Trade preferences given by one country have positive spillovers on exports to others in this model. Preferences given by the EU to Bangladesh in an industry...
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作者：Fillat, Jose L.; Garetto, Stefania; Oldenski, Lindsay
作者单位：Boston University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Georgetown University
摘要：We investigate theoretically and empirically the relationship between the geographic structure of a multinational corporation and its risk premium. Our structural model suggests two channels. On the one hand, multinational activity offers diversification benefits: risk premia should be higher for firms operating in countries where shocks co-vary more with the domestic ones. Second, hysteresis and operating leverage induced by fixed and sunk costs of production imply that risk premia should be ...
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作者：Seitz, Michael; Tarasov, Alexander; Zakharenko, Roman
作者单位：University of Munich; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：This paper develops a quantitative model of trade, military conflicts, and defense spending. Lowering trade costs between two countries reduces probability of an armed conflict between them, causing both to cut defense spending. This in turn causes a domino effect on defense spending by other countries. As a result, both countries and the rest of the world are better off. We estimate the model using data on trade, conflicts, and military spending. We find that, after reduction of costs of trad...
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作者：Fally, Thibault
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：The gravity equation for trade flows is one of the most successful empirical models in economics and has long played a central role in the trade literature (Anderson, 2011). Different approaches to estimate the gravity equation, i.e. reduced-form or more structural, have been proposed. This paper examines the role of adding-up constraints as the key difference between structural gravity with multilateral resistance indexes and reduced-form gravity with simple fixed effects by exporter and impo...
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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Lederman, Daniel; Porto, Guido
作者单位：The World Bank; The World Bank; National University of La Plata
摘要：Estimates of labor mobility costs are needed to assess the responses of employment and wages to trade shocks when factor adjustment is costly. Available methods to estimate those costs rely on panel data, which are seldom available in developing countries. We propose a method to estimate mobility costs using readily obtainable data worldwide. Our estimator matches the changes in observed sectoral employment allocations with the predicted allocations from a model of costly labor adjustment. We ...
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作者：Kim, Yun Jung; Tesar, Linda L.; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Sogang University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Using Korean firm-level data on publicly-listed and privately-held firms together with firm exit data, we find strong evidence that holdings of foreign-currency denominated debt negatively affected the economic performance of small firms during the 1997-98 crisis. The large exchange rate depreciation that occurred during the crisis resulted in a decline in net worth for firms with foreign-currency denominated debt on their balance sheets. Small firms with more short-term foreign debt were more...
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作者：Nam, Deokwoo; Wang, Jian
作者单位：Hanyang University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：This paper argues that it is important to distinguish surprise and anticipated components of total factor productivity (TFP) when we study the international transmission of TFP shocks. We document that surprise and anticipated shocks to US TFP induce distinct dynamics for international relative prices (the real exchange rate and the terms of trade) and international trade (real exports, real imports, and the trade balance). Our empirical findings can reconcile some conflicting empirical result...
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Bonn; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We exploit the implications of the macroeconomic policy trilemma to identify exogenous variation in monetary conditions: countries with fixed exchange regimes often see fluctuations in short-term interest r...
