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作者：Che, Yi; Du, Julan; Lu, Yi; Tao, Zhigang
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Chinese University of Hong Kong; National University of Singapore; University of Hong Kong
摘要：In this study, we exploit one of the most important conflicts of the 20th century between what are currently the world's second and third largest economies, that is, the Japanese invasion of China from 1937 to 1945, to investigate the long-term impact of conflicts between countries on cross-border trade and investment. We find that Japanese multinationals are less likely to invest in Chinese regions that suffered greater civilian casualties during the Japanese invasion, and these regions also ...
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作者：Mitchener, Kris James; Wandschneider, Kirsten
作者单位：Santa Clara University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Occidental College
摘要：We examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis. In particular, we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the Great Depression. We find evidence that they stemmed gold outflows in the year following their imposition; however, time-shifted, difference-in-differences (DD) estimates of industrial production, prices, and exports suggest that ca...
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作者：Garfinkel, Michelle R.; Skaperdas, Stergios; Syropoulos, Constantinos
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; Drexel University
摘要：We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world prices, free trade can intensify arming to such an extent that the additional security costs it brings swamp the traditional gains from trade and thus render autarky more desirable for one or all rival st...
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作者：Fontagne, Lionel; Orefice, Gianluca; Piermartini, Roberta; Rocha, Nadia
作者单位：heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics
摘要：This paper considers the heterogenous trade effects of restrictive Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) measures on exporters of different sizes, and the channels via which aggregate exports fall: firm participation, export values and pricing strategies. We do so by matching a detailed panel of French firm exports to a new database of SPS regulatory measures that have been raised as of concern in the dedicated committees of the WTO. By using specific trade concerns to capture the restrictiveness ...
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作者：Sposi, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：In this paper I quantitatively address the role of trade barriers in explaining why prices of services relative to tradables are positively correlated with levels of development across countries. I argue that trade barriers play a crucial role in shaping the cross-country pattern of specialization across many tradable goods. I construct a multi-country, general equilibrium model of trade and derive tractable predictions that show how specialization affects relative prices. I calibrate the mode...
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作者：Ossa, Ralph
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I show that accounting for cross-industry variation in trade elasticities greatly magnifies the estimated gains from trade. The main idea is as simple as it is general: while imports in the average industry do not matter too much, imports in some industries are critical to the functioning of the economy, so that a complete shutdown of international trade is very costly overall. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Geng, Difei; Saggi, Kamal
作者单位：Vanderbilt University
摘要：We evaluate the case for non-discrimination in international patent protection. When trade is not subject to any frictions/barriers, requiring national treatment (NT) does not affect the rate of innovation (and welfare) since unfavorable discrimination suffered abroad by innovators in the absence of NT is fully offset by favorable discrimination enjoyed by them at home. When trade barriers exist, however, such international offsetting in patent protection is incomplete and innovation incentive...
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作者：Niepmann, Friederike
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The international linkages between banks play a crucial role in today's global economy. Existing models explain these links largely on the basis of portfolio theory, in which banks diversify lending. These models have found limited empirical support and do not speak to several relevant dimensions of the data. They do not explain heterogeneity in the degree to which banks operate through foreign affiliates, fund their activities abroad or matter for local lending in foreign countries. This pape...
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作者：Forlati, Chiara
作者单位：University of Southampton
摘要：This paper revisits the question of the appropriate domain of a currency area using a New-Keynesian open economy model in which the world is split into two areas, each framed as a continuum of small open regions. We show that the adoption of a common currency like the euro can be beneficial for the members of the monetary union, since the spill-over effects generated by the inflationary policies of the small open economies are likely to outweigh the costs of not tailoring monetary policy to co...
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作者：Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo; Guimaraes, Bernardo
作者单位：Universidade de Sao Paulo; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：This paper studies fiscal policy in a model of sovereign debt and default A time inconsistency problem arises: since the price of past debt cannot be affected by current fiscal policy and governments cannot credibly commit to a certain path of tax rates, debtor countries choose suboptimally low fiscal adjustments. An international organization, capable of designing a contract that coaxes debtors into a tougher fiscal stance via the provision of cheap senior lending in times of crisis, can work...
