Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kehoe, Timothy J.; Rossbach, Jack; Ruhl, Kim J.
• 署名单位: National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; New York University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.03.004
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 289-297
• 关键词: trade liberalization; industry; product

摘要

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). We evaluate the ability of our methodology to account for the industry-level variation in export growth by using our model to predict the growth in industry trade from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We show that our method performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of NAFTA. We find that the most important products in our analysis are not the ones with zero pre-liberalization trade, but those with positive, yet small amounts of pre-liberalization trade. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.