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作者：Kellard, N; Wohar, ME
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Essex
摘要：This paper applies new time series procedures to examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular deterioration in relative primary commodity prices. Specifically, we allow for (up to) two structural breaks in 24 price series, covering the 1900-98 period. For the majority of commodities, it is shown that the trend is not well represented by a single downward slope, but instead by a shifting trend that often changes sign over the sample period. Unlike some recent work that has also allowed f...
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作者：Bwalya, Samuel Mulenga
作者单位：University of Zambia
摘要：The most pronounced reason for providing fiscal incentives to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) is that FDI is an effective conduit for technology transfer through technology spillovers to domestically owned firms in the host country. This study analyzes the nature and significance of productivity externalities of FDI to local firms, both in terms of intra-industry and inter-industry spillovers, using firm-level data from Zambia. The results show little evidence in support of intra-indus...
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作者：De Weerdt, Joachim; Dercon, Stefan
作者单位：KU Leuven; University of Oxford
摘要：Most risk-sharing tests on developing country data are conducted at the level of the village; generally, the full risk-sharing hypothesis is rejected. This paper uses detailed data on all insurance networks within a village in Tanzania; networks are not clustered but largely overlapping. We test whether full risk-sharing occurs within these networks. While village level full-insurance cannot be rejected for food consumption, we find evidence consistent with at least partial insurance of non-fo...
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作者：Bardhan, Pranab; Mookherjee, Dilip
作者单位：Boston University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A commonly alleged pitfall of decentralization is that poverty, socio-economic inequality and lack of political competition allow local elites to capture local governments. This hypothesis is empirically examined using a longitudinal sample of 89 West Bengal villages concerning targeting of credit, agricultural input kits, employment programs and fiscal grants spanning the period 1978-98. Higher poverty, land inequality and low caste composition of the poor was associated with negligible adver...
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作者：McPeak, John
作者单位：Syracuse University; Syracuse University
摘要：In many low-income, high-risk environments households participate in informal risk sharing institutions involving inter-household transfers. This study focuses on: asset transfers and asset risk; the influence of past behavior on access to transfers; and wealth-differentiated transfer behavior. Panel data on livestock transfers in northern Kenya are analyzed. Three explanations of livestock transfers are investigated: ex post insurance; ex ante precautionary savings; and redistribution. Findin...
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作者：Giles, John
作者单位：Michigan State University
摘要：This paper uses a unique panel of data from rural China to analyze the impact of expanding connections to off-farm labor markets on the income and consumption of farm households. With stronger village ties to both migrant and local off-farm labor markets, households in previously autarkic village communities experience reduced exposure to shocks affecting agricultural production. The analyses presented in this paper control for the persistent effect of past shocks influencing income and consum...
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作者：Chaudhuri, Kausik; Schneider, Friedrich; Chattopadhyay, Sumana
作者单位：Johannes Kepler University Linz; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：Using the state level data from India, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in Indian states over the period 1974/75 to 1995/96. Our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991/92, the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average. Our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4% less in scheduled election years than in all other years. We also demonstrate that the growth is significan...
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作者：de Janvry, Alain; Finan, Frederico; Sadoulet, Elisabeth; Vakis, Renos
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; The World Bank
摘要：Income shocks on poor households are known to induce parents to take their children out of school and send them to work when other risk-coping instruments are insufficient. State dependence in school attendance further implies that these responses to short-run shocks have long-term consequences on children's human capital development. Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, where the condition is on school attendance, have been shown to be effective in increasing educational achievements and...
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作者：Tamura, R
作者单位：Clemson University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship be...
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作者：Grier, Robin; Grier, Kevin B.
作者单位：University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：We estimate an augmented multivariate GARCH-M model of inflation and output growth for Mexico at business cycle frequencies. The main findings are: (1) inflation uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on growth; (2) once the effect of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, lagged inflation does not have a direct negative effect on output growth; (3) However as predicted by Friedman and Ball, higher average inflation raises inflation uncertainty, and the overall net effect of averag...
