APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN INFERENCE AND FORECASTING IN HUGE-DIMENSIONAL MULTICOUNTRY VARS*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Feldkircher, Martin; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Pfarrhofer, Michael
• 署名单位: Salzburg University; University of Strathclyde
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12577
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1625-1658
• 关键词: vector autoregressions; volatility; priors; WORLD

摘要

Panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multicountry data sets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this article, we develop fast Bayesian methods for estimating PVARs using integrated rotated Gaussian approximations. We exploit the fact that domestic information is often more important than international information and group the coefficients accordingly. Fast approximations are used to estimate the latter whereas the former are estimated with precision using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate, using a huge model of the world economy, that it produces competitive forecasts quickly.