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作者：Feigenbaum, James J.
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：Was intergenerational economic mobility high in the early twentieth century in the US? Comparisons of mobility across time are complicated by the constraints of the data available. I match fathers from the Iowa State Census of 1915 to their sons in the 1940 Federal Census, the first state and federal censuses with data on income and years of education. I can estimate intergenerational mobility between 1915 and 1940 based on earnings, education, occupation, and names. Across all these measures,...
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作者：Dupor, Bill; McCrory, Peter B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This article studies the effects of interregional spillovers from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act). Using cross-county commuting data, we cluster US counties into local labour markets, each of which we further partition into two subregions. We then compare differential labour market outcomes and Recovery Act spending at the regional and subregional levels. Among pairs of subregions, we find evidence of fiscal policy spillovers. According to our benchmark sp...
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作者：Markussen, Simen; Roed, Knut; Schreiner, Ragnhild C.
摘要：We evaluate the impacts of a compulsory dialogue meeting for long-term sick-listed workers in Norway. The meeting is organised by the local social security administration after around six months of absence; its purpose is to bring together the absentee, the employer and the family physician to discuss whether arrangements can be made to facilitate partial or full work resumption. Our causal analysis is based on random-assignment-like geographical variation in the meeting propensity. We find th...
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作者：Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：External sources of as-if randomness - that is, external instruments - can be used to identify the dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic shocks. One method is a one-step instrumental variables regression (local projections - IV); a more efficient two-step method involves a vector autoregression. We show that, under a restrictive instrument validity condition, the one-step method is valid even if the vector autoregression is not invertible, so comparing the two estimates provides a test of in...
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作者：Javorcik, Beata S.; Lo Turco, Alessia; Maggioni, Daniela
作者单位：University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oxford; Marche Polytechnic University; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：This article examines the relationship between the presence of foreign affiliates and product upgrading by Turkish manufacturing firms. The analysis suggests that Turkish firms in sectors and regions more likely to supply foreign affiliates tend to introduce more complex products, where complexity is captured using a measure developed by Hidalgo and Hausmann (). This finding is robust to controlling for omitted variables, sample selection and potential simultaneity bias. It is also in line wit...
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作者：Braham, Matthew; van Hees, Martin
作者单位：University of Hamburg; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
摘要：Institutional rules create difficulties for the allocation of moral responsibility. One problem is the existence of responsibility voids, i.e. situations in which an outcome results from individual interactions but for which no one is responsible. Another is that responsibility can be fragmented in the sense that responsibility-bearing individuals may be responsible for different features of the outcome. This study examines both problems together. We show that for a large class of situations t...
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作者：Clemens, Michael A.; McKenzie, David
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：While measured remittances by migrant workers have recently soared, macroeconomic studies have difficulty detecting their effect on economic growth. We propose three new explanations for this puzzle. First, a large majority of the recent rise in measured remittances may be illusory - arising from changes in measurement. Second, cross-country regressions may lack power to detect such growth effects. Third, remittances rise primarily with rising emigration, whose opportunity cost to GDP creates ...
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作者：Bester, Helmut; Dahm, Matthias
作者单位：Free University of Berlin; University of Nottingham
摘要：We study contracting between a consumer and an expert in a credence goods model when: (i) the expert's choice of diagnosis effort is not observable; (ii) the expert might misrepresent his private information about the adequate treatment; and (iii) payments can depend only on the consumer's subjective evaluation of treatment success. We show that the first-best solution can always be implemented if the parties' discount factor is equal to one; a decrease in the discount factor makes obtaining t...
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作者：Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Auburn University System; Auburn University; William & Mary
摘要：This article examines the correlation between uncertainty and real GDP growth. We use the volatility of real GDP growth from a VAR, stock market volatility, survey-based forecast dispersion and macro uncertainty index as proxies for uncertainty. In each case, a stronger negative correlation emerged in 2008. We contend the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the federal funds rate contributed to our finding. To test our theory, we estimate a New Keynesian model with a ZLB constraint to generate a data-dr...
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作者：Gerlagh, Reyer; Liski, Matti
作者单位：Tilburg University; Aalto University
摘要：This article examines the socially optimal pricing of carbon emissions over time when climate-change impacts are unknown, potentially high-consequence events. The carbon price tends to increase with income. But learning about impacts, or their absence, decouples the carbon price from income growth. The price should grow faster than the economy if the past warming is not substantial enough for learning the true long-run social cost. It grows slower than the economy as soon as the warming genera...
