A Cup Runneth Over: Fiscal Policy Spillovers from the 2009 Recovery Act

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dupor, Bill; McCrory, Peter B.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12475
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1476-1508
• 关键词: american recovery; reinvestment act; multipliers; shocks

摘要

This article studies the effects of interregional spillovers from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act). Using cross-county commuting data, we cluster US counties into local labour markets, each of which we further partition into two subregions. We then compare differential labour market outcomes and Recovery Act spending at the regional and subregional levels. Among pairs of subregions, we find evidence of fiscal policy spillovers. According to our benchmark specification, $1 of Recovery Act spending in a subregion increases its own wage bill by $0.64 and increases the wage bill in its neighbouring subregion by $0.50 during the first two years following the Act's passage. The spillover effect occurs in the service sector, whereas the direct effect occurs in both the services and goods-producing sector.