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作者：Gratton, Gabriele; Holden, Richard; Kolotilin, Anton
摘要：Sender, who is either good or bad, wishes to look good at an exogenous deadline. Sender privately observes if and when she can release a public flow of information about her private type. Releasing information earlier exposes to greater scrutiny, but signals credibility. In equilibrium bad Sender releases information later than good Sender. We find empirical support for the dynamic predictions of our model using data on the timing of U.S. presidential scandals and U.S. initial public offerings...
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作者：Dubois, Pierre; Griffith, Rachel; O'Connell, Martin
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Manchester
摘要：There are growing calls to restrict advertising of junk foods. Whether such a move will improve diet quality will depend on how advertising shifts consumer demands and how firms respond. We study an important and typical junk food market-the potato chips market. We exploit consumer level exposure to adverts to estimate demand, allowing advertising to potentially shift the weight consumers place on product healthiness, tilt demand curves, have dynamic effects and spillover effects across brands...
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作者：Duernecker, Georg; Vega-Redondo, Fernando
作者单位：University of Munich; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We propose a stylized dynamic model to understand the role of social networks in the phenomenon we call globalization. In a nutshell, this term refers to the process by which even agents who are geographically far apart come to interact, thus being able to overcome what would otherwise be a fast saturation of local opportunities. Akey feature of our model is that the social network is the main channel through which agents exploit new opportunities. Therefore, only if the social network becomes...
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作者：Cisternas, Gonzalo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：I study a class of continuous-time games of learning and imperfect monitoring. A long-run player and a market share a common prior about the initial value of a Gaussian hidden state, and learn about its subsequent values by observing a noisy public signal. The long-run player can nevertheless control the evolution of this signal, and thus affect the market's belief. The public signal has an additive structure, and noise is Brownian. I derive conditions for an ordinary differential equation to ...
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作者：Lessem, Rebecca
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：In this article, I study how relative wages and border enforcement affect immigration from Mexico to the U.S. To do this, I develop a discrete choice dynamic programming model where people choose from a set of locations in both the U.S. and Mexico, while accounting for the location of one's spouse when making decisions. I estimate the model using data on individual immigration decisions from the Mexican Migration Project. Counterfactuals show that a 10% increase in Mexican wages reduces migrat...
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作者：Barczyk, Daniel; Kredler, Matthias
作者单位：McGill University; Universite de Montreal; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：We propose a dynamic non-cooperative framework for long-term-care (LTC) decisions of families and use it to evaluate LTC policy options for the U.S. We first document the importance of informal caregiving and economic determinants of care arrangements. We then build a heterogeneous-agents model with imperfectly-altruistic overlapping generations to account for the patterns we find. A key innovation is the availability of informal care (IC), which is determined through intra-family bargaining. ...
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作者：Dal Bo, Ernesto; Dal Bo, Pedro; Eyster, Erik
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Brown University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Most of the political economy literature blames inefficient policies on institutions or politicians' motives to supply bad policy, but voters may themselves be partially responsible by demanding bad policy. In this article, we posit that voters may systematically err when assessing potential changes in policy by underappreciating how new policies lead to new equilibrium behaviour. This biases voters towards policy changes that create direct benefits-welfare would rise if behaviour were held co...
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作者：Karantounias, Anastasios G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：I study the implications of recursive utility, a popular preference specification in macro-finance, for the design of optimal fiscal policy. Standard Ramsey tax-smoothing prescriptions are substantially altered. The planner over-insures by taxing less in bad times and more in good times, mitigating the effects of shocks. At the intertemporal margin, there is a novel incentive for introducing distortions that can lead to an ex-ante capital subsidy. Overall, optimal policy calls for a much stron...
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作者：Berger, David; Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Chicago
摘要：Recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements. This is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which, using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis, argues that consumption responses should be small. We show that, in contrast to this view, workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross-sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses, in line with the data. To explain this result, we show that consump...
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作者：Canay, Ivan A.; Kamat, Vishal
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：In the regression discontinuity design (RDD), it is common practice to assess the credibility of the design by testing whether the means of baseline covariates do not change at the cut-off (or threshold) of the running variable. This practice is partly motivated by the stronger implication derived by Lee (2008), who showed that under certain conditions the distribution of baseline covariates in the RDD must be continuous at the cut-off. We propose a permutation test based on the so-called indu...
