Review of Economic Studies

最新文章

• International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles AI翻译
  作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Ulu, Mehmet Fatih; Baskaya, Yusuf Soner
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Pompeu Fabra University; ICREA; Barcelona School of Economics; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Koc University; University of Glasgow
  摘要：This article studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over 2003-13. We use administrative data covering the universe of corporate credit transactions matched to bank balance sheets to document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally;...
• Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration AI翻译
  作者：Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
  作者单位：University of York - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Cologne; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Braunschweig University of Technology
  摘要：We show that the creation of the first integrated multi-modal pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that contemporary interregional trade was influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence integration as approximated by cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is partly e...
• Conditional Superior Predictive Ability AI翻译
  作者：Li, Jia; Liao, Zhipeng; Quaedvlieg, Rogier
  作者单位：Duke University; Singapore Management University; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
  摘要：This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark's conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testin...
• Demographics and Automation AI翻译
  作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
  摘要：We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technolo...
• The Design of Teacher Assignment: Theory and Evidence AI翻译
  作者：Combe, Julien; Tercieux, Olivier; Terrier, Camille
  作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; University of Lausanne; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
  摘要：To assign teachers to schools, a modified version of the well-known deferred acceptance mechanism has been proposed in the literature and is used in practice. We show that this mechanism fails to be fair and efficient for both teachers and schools. We identify a class of strategy-proof mechanisms that cannot be improved upon in terms of both efficiency and fairness. Using a rich dataset on teachers' applications in France, we estimate teachers preferences and perform a counterfactual analysis....
• Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model AI翻译
  作者：Cogley, Timothy; Jovanovic, Boyan
  作者单位：New York University
  摘要：We study the effects of parameter uncertainty prompted by structural breaks. In our model, agents respond differently to uncertainty prompted by regime shifts in shock processes than they react to comparable perceived increases in shock volatility. The magnitude of the response to an increase in uncertainty about TFP associated with a structural break is greater than that of a response to a comparable perceived rise in volatility. This is because lifetime utility varies more when shocks shift ...
• Financial Regulation in a Quantitative Model of the Modern Banking System AI翻译
  作者：Begenau, J.; Landvoigt, T.
  作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：How does the shadow banking system respond to changes in capital regulation of commercial banks? We propose a quantitative general equilibrium model with regulated and unregulated banks to study the unintended consequences of regulation. Tighter capital requirements for regulated banks cause higher convenience yield on debt of all banks, leading to higher shadow bank leverage and a larger shadow banking sector. At the same time, tighter regulation eliminates the subsidies to commercial banks f...
• A Menu of Insurance Contracts for the Unemployed AI翻译
  作者：Barnichon, Regis; Zylberberg, Yanos
  作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Bristol; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Alan Turing Institute
  摘要：Unemployment insurance (UI) programs traditionally take the form of a single insurance contract offered to job seekers. In this work, we show that offering a menu of contracts can be welfare improving in the presence of adverse selection and moral hazard. When insurance contracts are composed of (1) a UI payment and (2) a severance payment paid at the onset of unemployment, offering contracts with different ratios of UI benefits to severance payment is optimal under the equivalent of a single-...
• Globalization, Gender, and the Family AI翻译
  作者：Keller, Wolfgang; Utar, Hale
  作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Grinnell College
  摘要：Facing the same labour demand shock through imports from China, we show that men and women make different labour market and family adjustments that result in significant long-run gender inequality. The gender gap is driven by the female biological clock. Using population registers and matched employer-employee data from Denmark, we document that especially women in their late 30s, towards the end of their biological clock, decide to have a baby as the shock causes displacement. High-earning wo...
• Patent Screening, Innovation, and Welfare AI翻译
  作者：Schankerman, Mark; Schuett, Florian
  作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tilburg University
  摘要：Critics claim that patent screening is ineffective, granting low-quality patents that impose unnecessary social costs. We develop an integrated framework, involving patent office examination, fees, and endogenous validity challenges in the courts, to study patent screening both theoretically and quantitatively. In our model, some inventions require the patent incentive while others do not, and asymmetric information creates a need for screening. We show that the endogeneity of challenges impli...