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作者：Beraja, Martin; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Developing artificial intelligence (AI) technology requires data. In many domains, government data far exceed in magnitude and scope data collected by the private sector, and AI firms often gain access to such data when providing services to the state. We argue that such access can stimulate commercial AI innovation in part because data and trained algorithms are shareable across government and commercial uses. We gather comprehensive information on firms and public security procurement contra...
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作者：Pei, Harry
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：A patient seller interacts with a sequence of myopic consumers. Each period, the seller chooses the quality of his product, and a consumer decides whether to trust the seller after she observes the seller's actions in the last K periods (limited memory) and at least one previous consumer's action (observational learning). However, the consumer cannot observe the seller's action in the current period. With positive probability, the seller is a commitment type who plays his Stackelberg action in...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Saffie, Felipe; Urzua, Sergio
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Virginia; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy: a wealth channel, through which higher commodity prices increase domestic demand, and a cost channel, through which they induce wage increases. By exploiting regional variation in exposure to commodity price shocks and administrative firm-level data from Brazil, we empirically disentangle these transmission channels. We introduce a dynamic model with heterogeneous firms and workers to further quantify th...
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作者：Boehm, Michael J.; Metzger, Daniel; Stromberg, Per
作者单位：Dortmund University of Technology; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Swedish House of Finance; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; European Corporate Governance Institute; Stockholm School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Financial sector wages have increased extraordinarily over the last decades. We address two potential explanations for this increase: (1) rising demand for talent and (2) firms sharing rents with their employees. Matching administrative data of Swedish workers, which include unique measures of individual talent, with financial information on their employers, we find no evidence that talent in finance improved, neither on average nor at the top. The increase in relative finance wages is present...
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作者：Assuncao, Juliano; McMillan, Robert; Murphy, Joshua; Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; Natural Resources Canada
摘要：This article sets out a data-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world's most extensive rainforest, where Brazil's federal government issued a Priority List of municipalities in 2008-a blacklist to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. First, we estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation (along with other relevant treatment effects) using changes-in-c...
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作者：Bhattarai, Saroj; Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Gafarov, Bulat
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Brown University; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：This article presents a model of quantitative easing (QE) at the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the short-term nominal interest rate. QE, which reduces the maturity of government debt, is effective at the ZLB because it generates expectations of future monetary expansion in a time-consistent equilibrium. Numerical experiments show that this effect can be substantial.
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作者：Straub, Ludwig; Ulbricht, Robert
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston College
摘要：We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty in which the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals is impaired during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress. Through this two-way feedback loop, a temporary financial shock can cause a persistent reduction in risky lending, output, and employment that coincides with increased uncertainty, default rates, credit spreads, and disagreement among forecasters. We embed our mechanism int...
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作者：Muller, Karsten; Verner, Emil
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable sector. Credit expansions to the non-tradable sector, in turn, systematically predict subsequent growth slowdowns and financial crises. In contrast, credit expansions to the tradable sector are associated ...
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作者：Fillmore, Ian
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：In the US, the federal government grants colleges access to a student's Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) which facilitates substantial price discrimination. This article is the first to estimate the consequences of allowing colleges to use the FAFSA in their pricing decisions. I build and estimate a structural model of college pricing and simulate counterfactuals wherein some or all of the FAFSA information is restricted. I find that if FAFSA information were restricted, 13% of...
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作者：Kleiner, Morris M.; Soltas, Evan J.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We assess the welfare consequences of occupational licensing for workers and consumers. We estimate a model of labour market equilibrium in which licensing restricts labour supply but also affects labour demand via worker quality and selection. On the margin of occupations licensed differently between U.S. states, we find that licensing raises wages and hours but reduces employment. We estimate an average welfare loss of 12% of occupational surplus. Workers and consumers respectively bear 70% ...
