A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bornstein, Gideon; Krusell, Per; Rebelo, Sergio
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdac019
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 132-164
• 关键词: energy price-increases; shocks; macroeconomy; uncertainty; COMPETITION; monopoly; demand

摘要

We use new, comprehensive micro data on oil fields to build and estimate a structural model of the oil industry embedded in a general equilibrium model of the world economy. In the model, firms that belong to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) act as a cartel. The remaining firms are a competitive fringe. We use the model to study the macroeconomic impact of the advent of fracking. Fracking weakens the OPEC cartel, leading to a large long-run decline in oil prices. Fracking also reduces the volatility of oil prices in the long run because fracking firms can respond more quickly to changes in oil demand.