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作者：Giuliano, Paola; Nunn, Nathan
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nicholas; Terry, Stephen J.
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Boston University
摘要：Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We construct cross-country panel data on stock market returns to proxy for first- and second-moment shocks and instrument these with natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and political shocks. Our IV regression results reveal a robust negative short-term impact of second moments (uncertainty) on growth. Employing multiple vector autoregression estimation approaches, relying on a range of identifying assump...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Southern California; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts. Because of portfolio diversification, the default of one country causes a macroeconomic contraction in other countries, which motivates a bailout. But why do creditor countries choose to bailout debtor countries instead of their own private sector? We show that this is because an external bailout could be cheaper than a domestic bailout. We also show that although anticipated bailouts l...
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作者：Kojima, Fuhito; Sun, Ning; Yu, Ning Neil
作者单位：University of Tokyo; University of Tokyo; Southern University of Science & Technology; Nanjing Audit University
摘要：In markets for indivisible resources such as workers and objects, subsidy and taxation for an agent may depend on the set of acquired resources and prices. This paper investigates how such transfer policies interfere with the substitutes condition, which is critical for market equilibrium existence and auction mechanism performance among other important issues. For environments where the condition holds in the absence of policy intervention, we investigate which transfer policies preserve the ...
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作者：Maxted, Peter
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations into a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector. Diagnostic expectations are a forward-looking model of extrapolative expectations that overreact to recent news. Frictions in financial intermediation produce non-linear spikes in risk premia and slumps in investment during periods of financial distress. The interaction of sentiment with financial frictions generates a short-run amplification effect followed by a...
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作者：De Nardi, Mariacristina; Fella, Giulio; Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of Bologna; European Central Bank
摘要：The extent to which households can self-insure depends on family structure and wage risk. We calibrate a model of couples and singles' savings and labour supply under two types of wage processes. The first wage process is the canonical-age-independent, linear-one that is typically used to evaluate government insurance provision. The second wage process is a flexible one. We use our model to evaluate the optimal mix of the two most common types of means-tested benefits-IW versus income floor. T...
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作者：Kamada, Yuichiro; Kojima, Fuhito
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stanford University
摘要：This paper studies a general model of matching with constraints. Observing that a stable matching typically does not exist, we focus on feasible, individually rational, and fair matchings. We characterize such matchings by fixed points of a certain function. Building on this result, we characterize the class of constraints on individual schools under which there exists a student-optimal fair matching, the matching that is the most preferred by every student among those satisfying the three des...
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作者：Gratton, Gabriele; Lee, Barton E.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：We study a model of the rise and fall of illiberal democracies. Voters value both liberty and economic security. In times of crisis, voters may prefer to elect an illiberal government that, by violating constitutional constraints, offers greater economic security but less liberty. However, violating these constraints allows the government to manipulate information, in turn reducing electoral accountability. We show how elements of liberal constitutions induce voters to elect illiberal governme...
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作者：Eslava, Marcela; Haltiwanger, John; Urdaneta, Nicolas
作者单位：Universidad de los Andes - Chile; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Duke University
摘要：What determines the distribution of establishments in terms of size and life-cycle growth? How are those determinants related to aggregate productivity? We provide novel answers by developing a framework that uses price and quantity information on establishments' outputs and inputs to jointly estimate the demand and production parameters, and subsequently, establishments' quality-adjusted productivity, deriving both micro-level and aggregate implications. We find that the dominant source of va...
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作者：Oehmke, Martin; Opp, Marcus M.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：We characterize the conditions under which a socially responsible (SR) fund induces firms to reduce externalities, even when profit-seeking capital is in perfectly elastic supply. Such impact requires that the SR fund's mandate permits the fund to trade off financial performance against reductions in social costs-relative to the counterfactual in which the fund does not invest in a given firm. Based on such an impact mandate, we derive the social profitability index, an investment criterion th...
