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作者：Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This article provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP comovement into components capturing shock transmission and shock correlation. We quantify this decomposition in a parsimonious multi-country, multi-sector dynamic network propagation model, using data for the G7 countries over the period 1978-2007. Our main finding is that while the network transmission of shocks is quan...
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作者：Ferriere, Axelle; Navarro, Gaston
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Historically, large changes in U.S. government spending induced fiscal efforts that were not all alike, with some using more progressive taxes than others. We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model to analyse how the distribution of taxes across households shapes spending multipliers. The model yields empirically realistic distributions in marginal propensities to consume and labour elasticities, which result in lower responsiveness to tax changes for higher-income earners. In turn,...
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作者：Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Chi, Guanghua; Tan, Xu
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：How do social networks influence the decision to migrate? Prior work suggests two distinct mechanisms that have historically been difficult to differentiate: as a conduit of information, and as a source of social and economic support. We disentangle these mechanisms using a massive digital trace dataset that allows us to observe the migration decisions made by millions of individuals over several years, as well as the complete social network of each person in the months before and after migrat...
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作者：Kovbasyuk, Sergey; Spagnolo, Giancarlo
作者单位：New Economic School; University of Rome Tor Vergata; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：In many environments, including credit and online markets, records about participants are collected, published, and erased after some time. We study the effects of erasing past records in a dynamic market where the quality of sellers follows a Markov process, and buyers leave feedback about sellers to an information intermediary. When the average quality of sellers is low, unlimited records lead to a market breakdown in the long run. We consider the information design problem and characterize ...
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作者：Mueller, Andreas, I; Osterwalder, Damian; Zweimuller, Josef; Kettemann, Andreas
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Zurich
摘要：This article explores the relationship between the duration of a vacancy and the starting wage of a new job, using linked data on vacancies, the posting establishments, and the workers eventually filling the vacancies. The unique combination of large-scale, administrative worker, establishment, and vacancy data is critical for separating establishment- and job-level determinants of vacancy duration from worker-level heterogeneity. Conditional on observables, we find that vacancy duration is ne...
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作者：Andrews, Donald W. K.; Kwon, Soonwoo
作者单位：Yale University; Brown University
摘要：This paper is concerned with possible model misspecification in moment inequality models. Two issues are addressed. First, standard tests and confidence sets for the true parameter in the moment inequality literature are not robust to model misspecification in the sense that they exhibit spurious precision when the identified set is empty. This paper introduces tests and confidence sets that provide correct asymptotic inference for a pseudo-true parameter in such scenarios, and hence, do not s...
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作者：Cumming, Fergus; Dettling, Lisa
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households' eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results p...
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作者：Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zolitz, Ulf; Ribeaud, Denis; Eisner, Manuel
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; University of Zurich; University of Cambridge
摘要：We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enrol in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher g...
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作者：Lee, Hyunju; Lee, Sunyoung; Paluszynski, Radoslaw
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：This article studies the effects of higher bank capital requirements. Using new firm-lender matched credit data from South Korea, we document that Basel III coincided with a 25% decline in credit from regulated banks, and an increase of similar magnitude from non-bank (shadow) lenders. We use our data to estimate the effect of capital requirements on bank credit, and the spillover effect of the reform on non-bank lending. We then build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks and f...
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作者：Baqaee, David Rezza; Farhi, Emmanuel; Sangani, Kunal
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：How does an increase in market size, say due to globalization, affect welfare? We study this question using a model with monopolistic competition, heterogeneous markups, and fixed costs. We characterize changes in welfare and decompose changes in allocative efficiency into three different effects: (1) reallocations across firms with heterogeneous price elasticities due to intensifying competition, (2) reallocations due to the exit of marginally profitable firms, and (3) reallocations due to ch...
