Review of Economic Studies

最新文章

• Political Pressure on the Fed AI翻译
  作者：Drechsel, Thomas
  作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
  摘要：This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon's pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through restrictions on a structural vecto...
• Inference Based on Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions AI翻译
  作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul; Waggoner, Daniel F.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
  摘要：We propose an approach for Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions. The linchpin of our approach is a class of rotation-invariant time-varying SVARs in which the prior and posterior densities of any sequence of structural parameters belonging to the class are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the sequence. Our methodology is new to the literature. In contrast to existing algorithms for inference based on sign restr...
• Algorithmic Recommendations and Human Discretion AI翻译
  作者：Angelova, Victoria; Dobbie, Will; Yang, Crystal S.
  作者单位：Harvard University
  摘要：Human decision-makers frequently override the recommendations generated by predictive algorithms, but it is unclear whether these discretionary overrides add valuable private information or reintroduce human biases and mistakes. We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure the impact of human discretion over an algorithm on the accuracy of decisions, even when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed, in the context of bail decisions. We find that 90% of the judges in our set...
• Behavioural Causal Inference AI翻译
  作者：Spiegler, Ran
  作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
  摘要：When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions' causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium an...
• Institutions, Comparative Advantage, and the Environment AI翻译
  作者：Shapiro, Joseph S.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper proposes that strong institutions provide comparative advantage in clean industries, and thereby improve a country's environmental quality. I study financial, judicial, and labour market institutions. Five complementary tests evaluate and assess implications of this hypothesis. First, industries that depend on institutions are clean. Second, strong institutions increase relative exports in clean industries. Third, an industry's complexity helps explain the link between institutions ...
• A Robust Test for Weak Instruments for 2SLS with Multiple Endogenous Regressors AI翻译
  作者：Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel
  作者单位：University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
  摘要：We develop a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that (1) generalizes Stock and Yogo's and Sanderson and Windmeijer's tests to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, and (2) extends Montiel Olea and Pflueger's robust test for models with a single endogenous regressor to multiple endogenous regressors. Our test can be based either on an absolute bias criterion or on the 2SLS bias relative to a worst-case benchmark. We also develop exten...
• What Do Policies Value? AI翻译
  作者：Bjorkegren, Daniel; Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Knight, Samsun
  作者单位：Columbia University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Toronto
  摘要：When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We estimate how much each person benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile the allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach ...
• Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China's Shipbuilding Industry AI翻译
  作者：Barwick, Panle Jia; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Zahur, Nahim Bin
  作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin Madison; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Queens University - Canada
  摘要：Industrial policies are widely used across the world. In practice, designing and implementing these policies is a complicated task. In this paper, we assess the long-term performance of different industrial policy instruments, which include production subsidies, investment subsidies, entry subsidies, and consolidation policies. To do so, we examine a recent industrial policy in China aiming to propel the country's shipbuilding industry to the largest globally. Using firm-level data from 1998 t...
• Arbitration with Uninformed Consumers AI翻译
  作者：Egan, Mark; Matvos, Gregor; Seru, Amit
  作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Stanford University
  摘要：This article studies the impact of the arbitrator selection process on consumer outcomes. Using data from consumer arbitration cases in the securities industry over the past two decades, where we observe detailed information on case characteristics, the randomly generated list of potential arbitrators presented to both parties, the selected arbitrator, and case outcomes, we establish several motivating facts. These facts suggest that firms hold an informational advantage over consumers in sele...
• Marriage, Assortative Mating, and Wealth Inequality AI翻译
  作者：Fagereng, Andreas; Guiso, Luigi; Pistaferri, Luigi
  作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; Stanford University
  摘要：We use population data on capital income and wealth holdings for Norway to measure asset positions and wealth returns before individuals marry and after the household is formed. These data allow us to establish a number of novel facts. First, individuals sort on personal wealth rather than parental wealth. Second, people match also on their personal returns to wealth, and assortative mating on returns is as strong as that on wealth. Third, post-marriage returns on family wealth reflect in equa...