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作者：Mendoza, Enrique G.; Yue, Vivian Z.
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Why are episodes of sovereign default accompanied by deep recessions? The existing literature cannot answer this question. On one hand, sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad hoc default costs. On the other hand, emerging markets business cycle models abstract from modeling default and treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and bus...
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作者：Burgess, Robin; Hansen, Matthew; Olken, Benjamin A.; Potapov, Peter; Sieber, Stefanie
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); The World Bank
摘要：Tropical deforestation accounts for almost one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions and threatens the world's most diverse ecosystems. Much of this deforestation is driven by illegal logging. We use novel satellite data that tracks annual deforestation across eight years of Indonesian institutional change to examine how local officials' incentives affect deforestation. Increases in the number of political jurisdictions lead to increased deforestation and lower timber prices, consistent with Courn...
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作者：Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand; Redding, Stephen J.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Princeton University
摘要：We examine urbanization using new data that allow us to track the evolution of population in rural and urban areas in the United States from 1880 to 2000. We find a positive correlation between initial population density and subsequent population growth for intermediate densities, which increases the dispersion of the population density distribution over time. We use theory and empirical evidence to show this pattern of population growth is the result of differences in agriculture's initial sh...
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作者：Fryer, Roland G., Jr.; Levitt, Steven D.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：In this article, we analyze the 1920s Ku Klux Klan, those who joined it, and its social and political impact by combining a wide range of archival data sources with data from the 1920 and 1930 U.S censuses. We find that individuals who joined the Klan in some cities were more educated and more likely to hold professional jobs than the typical American. Surprisingly, we find little evidence that the Klan had an effect on black or foreign-born residential mobility or vote totals. Rather than a t...
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作者：Borjas, George J.; Doran, Kirk B.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Notre Dame
摘要：It has been difficult to open up the black box of knowledge production. We use unique international data on the publications, citations, and affiliations of mathematicians to examine the impact of a large, post-1992 influx of Soviet mathematicians on the productivity of their U.S. counterparts. We find a negative productivity effect on those mathematicians whose research overlapped with that of the Soviets. We also document an increased mobility rate (to lower quality institutions and out of a...
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作者：Lee, David S.; Mas, Alexandre
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the effect of new private-sector unionization on publicly traded firms' equity value in the United States over the 1961-1999 period using a newly assembled sample of National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) representation elections matched to stock market data. Event-study estimates show an average union effect on the equity value of the firm equivalent to $40,500 per unionized worker, an effect that takes 15 to 18 months after unionization to fully materialize, and one that could not...
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作者：Bettinger, Eric P.; Long, Bridget Terry; Oreopoulos, Philip; Sanbonmatsu, Lisa
作者单位：Stanford University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of Toronto
摘要：Growing concerns about low awareness and take-up rates for government support programs like college financial aid have spurred calls to simplify the application process and enhance visibility. We present results from a randomized field experiment in which low-income individuals receiving tax preparation help were also offered immediate assistance and a streamlined process to complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) for themselves or their children. Treated participants wer...
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作者：Ahern, Kenneth R.; Dittmar, Amy K.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：In 2003, a new law required that 40% of Norwegian firms' directors be women-at the time only 9% of directors were women. We use the prequota cross-sectional variation in female board representation to instrument for exogenous changes to corporate boards following the quota. We find that the constraint imposed by the quota caused a significant drop in the stock price at the announcement of the law and a large decline in Tobin's Q over the following years, consistent with the idea that firms cho...
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作者：Casey, Katherine; Glennerster, Rachel; Miguel, Edward
作者单位：Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Despite their importance, there is limited evidence on how institutions can be strengthened. Evaluating the effects of specific reforms is complicated by the lack of exogenous variation in institutions, the difficulty of measuring institutional performance, and the temptation to cherry pick estimates from among the large number of indicators required to capture this multifaceted subject. We evaluate one attempt to make local institutions more democratic and egalitarian by imposing participatio...
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作者：Gibbons, Robert; Holden, Richard; Powell, Michael
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of New South Wales Sydney; Northwestern University
摘要：We analyze a rational-expectations model of price formation in an intermediate-good market under uncertainty. There is a continuum of firms, each consisting of a party who can reduce production cost and a party who can discover information about demand. Both parties can make specific investments at private cost, and there is a machine that either party can control. As in incomplete-contracting models, different governance structures (i.e., different allocations of control of the machine) creat...
