Urbanization and Structural Transformation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Michaels, Guy; Rauch, Ferdinand; Redding, Stephen J.
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjs003
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 535-586
• 关键词: UNITED-STATES; zipfs law; GROWTH; agriculture; geography; EVOLUTION; industry; rise

摘要

We examine urbanization using new data that allow us to track the evolution of population in rural and urban areas in the United States from 1880 to 2000. We find a positive correlation between initial population density and subsequent population growth for intermediate densities, which increases the dispersion of the population density distribution over time. We use theory and empirical evidence to show this pattern of population growth is the result of differences in agriculture's initial share of employment across population densities, combined with structural transformation that shifts employment away from agriculture.