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作者：Aizer, Anna; Doyle, Joseph J., Jr.
作者单位：Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Over 130,000 juveniles are detained in the United States each year with 70,000 in detention on any given day, yet little is known about whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior. This article uses the incarceration tendency of randomly assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism. E...
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作者：Adena, Maja; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Santarosa, Veronica; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; ICREA; New Economic School; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：How do the media affect public support for democratic institutions in a fragile democracy? What role do they play in a dictatorial regime? We study these questions in the context of Germany of the 1920s and 1930s. During the democratic period, when the Weimar government introduced progovernment political news, the growth of Nazi popularity slowed down in areas with access to radio. This effect was reversed during the campaign for the last competitive election as a result of the pro-Nazi radio ...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gopinath, Gita
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Harvard University
摘要：We study fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union with the potential for rollover crises in sovereign debt markets. Member-country fiscal authorities lack commitment to repay their debt and choose fiscal policy independently. A common monetary authority chooses inflation for the union, also without commitment. We first describe the existence of a fiscal externality that arises in the presence of limited commitment and leads countries to overborrow; this externality rationalizes the impos...
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作者：Giglio, Stefano; Maggiori, Matteo; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：University of Chicago; Harvard University; New York University
摘要：We estimate how households trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the United Kingdom and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are temporary, prepaid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities between 99 and 999 years, while freeholds are perpetual ownership contracts. The price difference betwe...
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作者：Jacob, Brian A.; Kapustin, Max; Ludwig, Jens
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：One long-standing motivation for low-income housing programs is the possibility that housing affordability and housing conditions generate externalities, including on children's behavior and long-term life outcomes. We take advantage of a randomized housing voucher lottery in Chicago in 1997 to examine the long-term impact of housing assistance on a wide variety of child outcomes, including schooling, health, and criminal involvement. In contrast to most prior work focusing on families in publ...
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作者：Garthwaite, Craig; Gross, Tal; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; University of Chicago
摘要：We study the effect of public health insurance on labor supply by exploiting a large public health insurance disenrollment. In 2005, approximately 170,000 Tennessee residents abruptly lost Medicaid coverage. Using both across- and within-state variation in exposure to the disenrollment, we estimate large increases in labor supply, primarily along the extensive margin. The increased employment is concentrated among individuals working at least 20 hours a week and receiving private, employer-pro...
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作者：Piketty, Thomas; Zucman, Gabriel
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：How do aggregate wealth-to-income ratios evolve in the long run and why? We address this question using 1970-2010 national balance sheets recently compiled in the top eight developed economies. For the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and France, we are able to extend our analysis as far back as 1700. We find in every country a gradual rise' of wealth-income ratios in recent decades, from about 200-300% in 1970 to 400-600% in 2010. In effect, today's ratios appear to be returning to the...
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作者：Cantoni, Davide; Yuchtman, Noam
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We present new data documenting medieval Europe's Commercial Revolution using information on the establishment of markets in Germany. We use these data to test whether medieval universities played a causal role in expanding economic activity, examining the foundation of Germany's first universities after 1386 following the papal schism. We find that the trend rate of market establishment breaks upward in 1386 and this break is greatest where the distance to a university shrank most. There is n...
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作者：Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This article investigates the effect of bank lending frictions on employment outcomes. I construct a new data set that combines information on banking relationships and employment at 2,000 nonfinancial firms during the 2008-9 crisis. The article first verifies empirically the importance of banking relationships, which imply a cost to borrowers who switch lenders. I then use the dispersion in lender health following the Lehman crisis as a source of exogenous variation in the availability of cre...
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作者：Karabarbounis, Loukas; Neiman, Brent
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：The stability of the labor share of income is a key foundation in macroeconomic models. We document, however, that the global labor share has significantly declined since the early 1980s, with the decline occurring within the large majority of countries and industries. We show that the decrease in the relative price of investment goods, often attributed to advances in information technology and the computer age, induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The lower price of inve...
