-
作者：Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil
作者单位：Cornell University; Stanford University; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only o...
-
作者：Bold, Tessa; Kaizzi, Kayuki C.; Svensson, Jakob; Yanagizawa-Drott, David
作者单位：Stockholm University; University of Zurich
摘要：To reduce poverty and food insecurity in Africa requires raising productivity in agriculture. Systematic use of fertilizer and hybrid seed is a pathway to increased productivity, but adoption of these technologies remains low. We investigate whether the quality of agricultural inputs can help explain low take-up. Testing modern products purchased in local markets, we find that 30% of nutrient is missing in fertilizer, and hybrid maize seed is estimated to contain less than 50% authentic seeds....
-
作者：Battaglini, Marco
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：Technological advances and the development of social media have made petitions, public protests, and other form of spontaneous activism increasingly common tools for individuals to influence decision makers. To study these phenomena, in this article I present a theory of petitions and public protests that explores their limits as mechanisms to aggregate information. The key assumption is that valuable information is dispersed among citizens. Through petitions and protests, citizens can signal ...
-
作者：Dal B'o, Ernesto; Finan, Frederico; Folke, Olle; Persson, Torsten; Rickne, Johanna
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Uppsala University; Stockholm University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：Can a democracy attract competent leaders, while attaining broad representation? Economicmodels suggest that free-riding incentives and lower opportunity costs give the less competent a comparative advantage at entering political life. Moreover, if elites have more human capital, selecting on competence may lead to uneven representation. This article examines patterns of political selection among the universe of municipal politicians and national legislators in Sweden, using extraordinarily ri...
-
作者：DellaVigna, Stefano; Lindner, Attila; Reizer, Balazs; Schmieder, Johannes F.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; IFS; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Central European University; Boston University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We propose a model of job search with reference-dependent preferences, with loss aversion relative to recent income (the reference point). In this model, newly unemployed individuals search hard since consumption is below their reference point. Over time, though, they get used to lower income and thus reduce their search effort. In anticipation of a benefit cut, their search effort rises again, then declines once they get accustomed to the lower postcut benefit level. The model fits the typica...
-
作者：Haushofer, Johannes; Shapiro, Jeremy
作者单位：Princeton University
-
作者：Baron, Matthew; Xiong, Wei
作者单位：Cornell University; Princeton University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：By analyzing 20 developed economies over 1920-2012, we find the following evidence of overoptimism and neglect of crash risk by bank equity investors during credit expansions: (i) bank credit expansion predicts increased bank equity crash risk, but despite the elevated crash risk, also predicts lower mean bank equity returns in subsequent one to three years; (ii) conditional on bank credit expansion of a country exceeding a 95th percentile threshold, the predicted excess return for the bank eq...
-
作者：Lopez-Salido, David; Stein, Jeremy C.; Zakrajsek, Egon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t - 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-mark...
-
作者：Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University
摘要：We study the effects of a credit crunch on consumer spending in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market model. After an unexpected permanent tightening in consumers' borrowing capacity, constrained consumers are forced to repay their debt, and unconstrained consumers increase their precautionary savings. This depresses interest rates, especially in the short run, and generates an output drop, even with flexible prices. The output drop is larger with sticky prices, if the zero lower bound preve...
-
作者：Heller, Sara B.; Shah, Anuj K.; Guryan, Jonathan; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Pollack, Harold A.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Chicago; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009-2010 and 2013-2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28-35%, reduced violent-crim...
