The American Economic Review

最新文章

• A Century of Growth and Improvement AI翻译
  作者：Friedman, Benjamin M.
  作者单位：Harvard University
• To Buy or Not to Buy: Consumer Constraints in the Housing Market AI翻译
  作者：Fuster, Andreas; Zafar, Basit
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• Does the Market Value CEO Styles? AI翻译
  作者：Schoar, Antoinette; Zuo, Luo
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Cornell University
• Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery: The Case of the 1936 Veterans' Bonus AI翻译
  作者：Hausman, Joshua K.
  作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Conventional wisdom has it that in the 1930s fiscal policy did not work because it was not tried. This paper shows that fiscal policy was tried in 1936. The veterans' bonus of 1936 paid 2 percent of GDP to 3.2 million veterans; the typical veteran received a payment equal to per capita income. Multiple sources, including a household consumption survey, show that veterans spent the majority of their bonus. Point estimates of the MPC are between 0.6 and 0.75. Spending was concentrated on cars an...
• Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy AI翻译
  作者：Cosar, A. Kerem; Guner, Nezih; Tybout, James
  作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Autonomous University of Barcelona; ICREA; Barcelona School of Economics; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper explores the combined effects of reductions in trade frictions, tariffs, and firing costs on firm dynamics, job turnover, and wage distributions. It uses establishment-level data from Colombia to estimate an open economy dynamic model that links trade to job flows and wages. Counterfactual experiments imply that Colombia's integration with global product markets increased its national income at the expense of higher unemployment, greater wage inequality, and increased firm-level vol...
• Taxpayer Confusion: Evidence from the Child Tax Credit AI翻译
  作者：Feldman, Naomi E.; Katuscak, Peter; Kawano, Laura
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Prague University of Economics & Business; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; United States Department of the Treasury
  摘要：We develop an empirical test for whether households understand or misperceive their marginal tax rate. Our identifying variation comes from the loss of the Child Tax Credit when a child turns 17. Using this age discontinuity, we find that despite this tax liability increase being lump-sum and predictable, households reduce their reported wage income upon discovering they have lost the credit. This finding suggests that households misinterpret at least part of this tax liability change as an in...
• CoVaR AI翻译
  作者：Adrian, Tobias; Brunnermeier, Markus K.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
  摘要：We propose a measure of systemic risk, Delta CoVaR, defined as the change in the value at risk of the financial system conditional on an institution being under distress relative to its median state. Our estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict Delta CoVaR. We also provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk, and show that the 2006:IV value of this measure would ...
• Experiments on Decisions under Uncertainty: A Theoretical Framework AI翻译
  作者：Shmaya, Eran; Yariv, Leeat
  作者单位：Northwestern University; California Institute of Technology
  摘要：The analysis of lab data entails a joint test of the underlying theory and of subjects' conjectures regarding the experimental design itself, how subjects frame the experiment. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing such conjectures. We use experiments of decision making under uncertainty as a case study. Absent restrictions on subjects' framing of the experiment, we show that any behavior is consistent with standard updating (anything goes), including those suggestive of anomalies s...
• State Capacity and American Technology: Evidence from the Nineteenth Century AI翻译
  作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Moscona, Jacob; Robinson, James A.
  作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• Modernizing Federal Economic Statistics AI翻译
  作者：Bostic, William G., Jr.; Jarmin, Ron S.; Moyer, Brian