-
作者:Mullainathan, Sendhil; Obermeyer, Ziad
作者单位:Harvard University; Harvard University; Harvard Medical School; Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Brigham & Women's Hospital
-
作者:Sheldon, Tamara L.; Sankaran, Chandini
作者单位:University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia
-
作者:Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位:Duke University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要:We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a microfounded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight ...
-
作者:Ponce, Alejandro; Seira, Enrique; Zamarripa, Guillermo
作者单位:Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要:We establish new facts about the way consumers allocate debt among their credit cards using data for a representative sample of card-holders in Mexico. We find that relative prices are weak predictors of the allocation of debt, purchases, and payments. Consumers allocate a large fraction of their debt to high-interest cards, incurring a cost of 31 percent above the minimum. Using an experiment, we find that consumers do not substitute in the price margin, although they respond to salient tempo...
-
作者:Romer, Christina D.; Romer, David H.
作者单位:University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要:This paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. We construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967-2012. The series is based on assessments of the health of countries' financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source, and classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale. We find that the average decline in output following a financial crisis is statistically significant and persistent, ...
-
作者:Sedlacek, Petr; Sterk, Vincent
作者单位:University of Bonn; University of London; University College London
摘要:This paper shows that employment in cohorts of US firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Employment fluctuations of startups are procyclical, they persist into later years, and cohort-level employment variations are largely driven by differences in firm size, rather than the number of firms. An estimated general equilibrium firm dynamics model reveals that aggregate conditions at birth, rather than post-entry choices, drive the majority of cohort-level...
-
作者:Hendren, Nathaniel
作者单位:Harvard University
摘要:This paper studies the implications of individuals' knowledge of future job loss for the existence of an unemployment insurance (UI) market. Learning about job loss leads to consumption decreases and spousal labor supply increases. This suggests existing willingness to pay estimates for UI understate its value. But it yields new estimation methodologies that account for and exploit responses to learning about future job loss. Although the new willingness to pay estimates exceed previous estima...
-
作者:Baez, Javier; Caruso, German; Mueller, Valerie; Niu, Chiyu
作者单位:The World Bank; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
-
作者:Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola
作者单位:Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Goethe University Frankfurt
-
作者:Hamermesh, Daniel S.
作者单位:University of London; Royal Holloway University London; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要:There is a paucity of hard-science style replication in applied economics (Hamermesh 2007), although a few role models have used data that others had made available to re-examine conclusions that had appeared solid enough to pass muster with editor(s) and referees. My questions here are whether the profession can or should produce more pure replications, whether the market for economic research has created good substitutes for formal replication, and what the incentives are for this kind of wo...