The American Economic Review

最新文章

• Does Machine Learning Automate Moral Hazard and Error? AI翻译
  作者：Mullainathan, Sendhil; Obermeyer, Ziad
  作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; Harvard Medical School; Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Brigham & Women's Hospital
• The Impact of Indonesian Forest Fires on Singaporean Pollution and Health AI翻译
  作者：Sheldon, Tamara L.; Sankaran, Chandini
  作者单位：University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia
• Escaping the Great Recession AI翻译
  作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo
  作者单位：Duke University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
  摘要：We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a microfounded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight ...
• Borrowing on the Wrong Credit Card? Evidence from Mexico AI翻译
  作者：Ponce, Alejandro; Seira, Enrique; Zamarripa, Guillermo
  作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
  摘要：We establish new facts about the way consumers allocate debt among their credit cards using data for a representative sample of card-holders in Mexico. We find that relative prices are weak predictors of the allocation of debt, purchases, and payments. Consumers allocate a large fraction of their debt to high-interest cards, incurring a cost of 31 percent above the minimum. Using an experiment, we find that consumers do not substitute in the price margin, although they respond to salient tempo...
• New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries AI翻译
  作者：Romer, Christina D.; Romer, David H.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
  摘要：This paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. We construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967-2012. The series is based on assessments of the health of countries' financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source, and classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale. We find that the average decline in output following a financial crisis is statistically significant and persistent, ...
• The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle AI翻译
  作者：Sedlacek, Petr; Sterk, Vincent
  作者单位：University of Bonn; University of London; University College London
  摘要：This paper shows that employment in cohorts of US firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Employment fluctuations of startups are procyclical, they persist into later years, and cohort-level employment variations are largely driven by differences in firm size, rather than the number of firms. An estimated general equilibrium firm dynamics model reveals that aggregate conditions at birth, rather than post-entry choices, drive the majority of cohort-level...
• Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance AI翻译
  作者：Hendren, Nathaniel
  作者单位：Harvard University
  摘要：This paper studies the implications of individuals' knowledge of future job loss for the existence of an unemployment insurance (UI) market. Learning about job loss leads to consumption decreases and spousal labor supply increases. This suggests existing willingness to pay estimates for UI understate its value. But it yields new estimation methodologies that account for and exploit responses to learning about future job loss. Although the new willingness to pay estimates exceed previous estima...
• Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean AI翻译
  作者：Baez, Javier; Caruso, German; Mueller, Valerie; Niu, Chiyu
  作者单位：The World Bank; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
• Quantifying the Disincentive Effects of Joint Taxation on Married Women's Labor Supply AI翻译
  作者：Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola
  作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Goethe University Frankfurt
• Replication in Labor Economics: Evidence from Data and What It Suggests AI翻译
  作者：Hamermesh, Daniel S.
  作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; IZA Institute Labor Economics
  摘要：There is a paucity of hard-science style replication in applied economics (Hamermesh 2007), although a few role models have used data that others had made available to re-examine conclusions that had appeared solid enough to pass muster with editor(s) and referees. My questions here are whether the profession can or should produce more pure replications, whether the market for economic research has created good substitutes for formal replication, and what the incentives are for this kind of wo...