The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sedlacek, Petr; Sterk, Vincent
• 署名单位: University of Bonn; University of London; University College London
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141280
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 3182-3210
• 关键词: entry; FIRMS; LABOR

摘要

This paper shows that employment in cohorts of US firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Employment fluctuations of startups are procyclical, they persist into later years, and cohort-level employment variations are largely driven by differences in firm size, rather than the number of firms. An estimated general equilibrium firm dynamics model reveals that aggregate conditions at birth, rather than post-entry choices, drive the majority of cohort-level employment variation by affecting the share of startups with high growth potential. In the aggregate, changes in startup conditions result in large, slow-moving fluctuations in employment.