作者：Bachmann, Rudiger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; Menkhoff, Manuel; Schneider, Martin
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; University of Kiel; University of Munich; University of Copenhagen; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of subjective uncertainty. We show that subjective uncertainty reflects change experienced by firms: It is high when growth is either unusually low or unusually high. Subjective uncertainty is more than conditional volatility; while more volatile firms are typically more uncertain, experienced change alone increases un...
