Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bachmann, Rudiger; Carstensen, Kai; Lautenbacher, Stefan; Menkhoff, Manuel; Schneider, Martin
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; University of Kiel; University of Munich; University of Copenhagen; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240056
• 发表日期: 2026-08
• 页码: 2806-2849
• 关键词: expectations; INVESTMENT; volatility

摘要

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new panel survey of German manufacturing firms, we observe both forecasts of sales growth and a quantitative measure of subjective uncertainty. We show that subjective uncertainty reflects change experienced by firms: It is high when growth is either unusually low or unusually high. Subjective uncertainty is more than conditional volatility; while more volatile firms are typically more uncertain, experienced change alone increases uncertainty, consistent with a model of learning. Uncertainty over our sample is mostly idiosyncratic but varies substantially over time and leads managers to plan lower employment and prices. (JEL C83, D22, E20, E23)