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作者：Gornemann, Nils; Quintana, Pablo A. Guerron; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：Boston College; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Two-thirds of the real exchange rate's (RER's) volatility occurs at low frequencies. We provide empirical evidence that links movements in the RER to changes in research and development spending and patents. A two-country real business cycle model with endogenous productivity and a gradual dissemination of ideas can rationalize these facts. Endogenous productivity alters RER dynamics by inducing (i) a persistent gap in productivity between countries and (ii) a reallocation of resources toward ...
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作者：Hagedorn, Marcus; Manovskii, Iourii; Mitman, Kurt
作者单位：University of Oslo; University of Pennsylvania; Stockholm University
摘要：We measure the aggregate effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment and the labor force. We exploit the variation induced by Congress' failure in December 2013 to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across US states were abruptly cut to zero. In sharp contrast to their typical dynamics, labor force and employment growth accelerated sharply in states with larger cuts in benef...
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作者：Albanesi, Stefania
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Miami; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Women's labor force participation in the United States rose rapidly until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend on aggregate business cycles with a quantitative model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women's participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on its causes. The subsequent slowdown in women's participation played a substantial...
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作者：Ifergane, Tomer
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Insuring households against unemployment risk is a cornerstone of modern economic policy. Many countries provide unemployment insurance partly by employment protection mandates, most commonly using termination notice mandates. Unlike unemployment insurance benefits, termination notices can stimulate search effort by the unemployed. I formalize this idea using a calibrated heterogeneous agents model, show how termination notice alters the incentives of firms and workers, and study the insurance...
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作者：Macaulay, Alistair
作者单位：University of Surrey
摘要：I explore the business-cycle implications of household inattention to savings product choices. In a model with heterogeneous banks, savers pay more attention to their bank choice when the marginal utility of income is high. Consistent with this, in data from the United Kingdom retail savings market, I find savers more reliably choose products closer to the top of the available interest rate distribution during contractions. Countercyclical attention amplifies shocks to consumption: after contr...
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作者：Chugh, Sanjay K.; Shapiro, Alan Finkelstein
作者单位：Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Tufts University
摘要：We build a model to study how the countercyclicality of temporary layoffs affects unemployment, firm entry and exit, and macroeconomic fluctuations. The model can quantitatively generate the rich cyclical dynamics of temporary layoffs, unemployment, and firms in US data. The cyclicality of temporary layoffs plays a key role in limiting the contraction in job creation and the rise in unemployment during recessions. Amid factual wage dynamics, the countercyclical buffer from temporary layoffs ex...
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作者：Faia, Ester; Salomao, Juliana; Veghazy, Alexia Ventula
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; European Central Bank
摘要：We estimate euro-dollar yields differences, hedged and unhedged, with euro area confidential corporate bond holdings data. We find that euro yields significantly decline relative to dollar yields-more for securities in the portfolios of investors that prefer euro securities and securities eligible for the European Central Bank asset purchase programs. We then test and uncover a negative relation between the estimated yields differentials and purchases at the aggregate and firm level-stronger f...
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作者：Matthes, Christian; Schwartzman, Felipe
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We measure the impact of household consumption shocks on aggregate fluctuations. These shocks affect household consumption directly, and production and prices indirectly through their impact on aggregate consumption. We show how to identify such shocks using prior knowledge of their differential impact across sectoral variables. Shocks independently affecting household consumption demand have accounted for around 40 percent of business cycle fluctuations since the mid-1970s, playing a central ...
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作者：Brynjolfsson, Erik; Collis, Avinash; Diewert, W. Erwin; Eggers, Felix; Fox, Kevin J.
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; University of British Columbia; University of New South Wales Sydney; Copenhagen Business School; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：The welfare contributions of new goods and free goods are not well-measured in standard statistical agency metrics like GDP or productivity. We derive explicit terms for the contributions of these goods and introduce a new framework and metric, GDP-B, which quantifies their benefits. We apply this framework to several empirical examples, including Facebook and smartphone cameras, and estimate their valuations through incentive-compatible choice experiments. Our new approach can help measure we...
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作者：Buera, Francisco J.; Fattal-jaef, Roberto N.
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：This paper proposes a quantitative model of endogenous firm dynamics to study growth-acceleration episodes triggered by reforms. We find that reversals of entry distortions lead to persistent growth in TFP and declining average firm size, as in the experience of successful postcommunist transitions. Removing idiosyncratic distortions results in a more protracted path of TFP and a rising average firm size, as in noncommunist growth accelerations. When calibrating the reforms to China's liberali...
