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作者：Mountjoy, Jack
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article studies the returns to enrolling in U.S. public universities by comparing the long-term outcomes of barely admitted versus barely rejected applicants. I use administrative admission records spanning all 35 public universities in Texas, which collectively enroll 10% of all American public university students, to systematically identify and employ decentralized cutoffs in SAT/ACT scores that generate discontinuities in admission and enrollment. The typical marginally admitted studen...
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作者：Caldwell, Sydnee; Haegele, Ingrid; Heining, Jorg
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Munich
摘要：We use novel surveys of firms and workers, linked to administrative employer-employee data, to study the prevalence and importance of individual bargaining in wage determination. We show that simple survey questions accurately elicit firms' bargaining strategies. Using the elicited strategies for 772 German firms, we document that the majority of firms are willing to engage in individual wage bargaining. Labor market factors predict firms' strategies better than firm characteristics. Survey re...
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作者：Chetty, Raj; Deming, David J.; Friedman, John N.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University
摘要：We use anonymized admissions data from several colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study the determinants and causal effects of attending Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and Chicago). Children from families in the top 1% are more than twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college as those from middle-class families with comparable SAT/ACT scores. Two-thirds of this gap is due to higher admission rates for students with comparable test scores...
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作者：Lyons, Ronan C.; Shertzer, Allison; Gray, Rowena; Agorastos, David
作者单位：Trinity College Dublin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of California System; University of California Merced
摘要：We construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for American cities over the twentieth century using 2.7 million newspaper real estate listings. Our findings revise several stylized facts about U.S. housing markets. Real market rents did not fall during the postwar period in most cities and rose nationally by 60% from 1890 to 2006. We also document higher sales price growth between 1953 and 1987 relative to previous series. Real prices reached almost four times their 1890...
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作者：Testa, Patrick A.; Williams, Jhacova
作者单位：Tulane University; National Bureau of Economic Research; American University
摘要：Election results act as powerful signals, shaping social behavior in ways that can be dramatic and even violent. This article shows how racial violence in the post-Reconstruction U.S. South was tied to the local performance of the anti-Black Democratic Party in presidential elections. Using a regression discontinuity design based on close presidential vote shares, we find that Southern counties where Democrats lost the popular vote between 1880 and 1900 were nearly twice as likely to experienc...
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作者：Bau, Natalie; Khanna, Gaurav; Low, Corinne; Voena, Alessandra
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Pennsylvania; Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：This paper uses newly collected data on the allocation of dowry to examine its role in resolving intergenerational frictions around migration in India. Migration disrupts traditional elderly support structures, in which sons live near their parents and care for them in old age. We develop a model in which dowry can promote migration by allowing sons to make upfront transfers to their parents and ease constraints on income sharing. To test this hypothesis, we collect two new data sets that meas...
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作者：Almelhem, Ali; Iyigun, Murat; Kennedy, Austin; Rubin, Jared
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Chapman University System; Chapman University
摘要：We trace the evolution of the language of science, religion, and political economy in the centuries leading to the British Industrial Revolution. Using textual analysis of 264,443 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture manifested a belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the languages of science and religion beginning in the mid-eighteenth century. Second, volumes...
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作者：Correia, Sergio; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive noncore funding. These commonalities imply that bank failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Failures with runs were common before deposit insurance, but the...
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作者：Ang, Desmond; Chinoy, Sahil
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Nearly 400,000 Black men were drafted into the National Army during World War I, where they toiled primarily as menial laborers in segregated units. Leveraging novel variation from the World War I draft lottery and millions of digitized military and NAACP records, we document the pioneering role these men played in the early civil rights movement. Relative to observably similar individuals from the same draft board, Black men randomly inducted into the Army were significantly more likely to jo...
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作者：Arteaga, Carolina; Barone, Victoria
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Notre Dame
摘要：In this article, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: the opioid epidemic and the political realignment between the Republican and Democratic parties. Drawing on unsealed records from litigation against Purdue Pharma, we uncover rich geographic variation in the marketing of prescription opioids that serves as a quasi-exogenous source of exposure to the epidemic. We use this variation to document signifi...
