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作者：Bastianello, Francesca; Fontanier, Paul
作者单位：University of Chicago; Yale University
摘要：We develop a dynamic theory of Partial Equilibrium Thinking (PET), which micro-founds time-varying return extrapolation: extrapolative beliefs are present at all times, but only sometimes manifest themselves in explosive ways. We formalize the distinction between normal times shocks and displacement shocks, and study their interaction with extrapolative beliefs. In normal times, PET generates constant extrapolation and momentum. After a displacement shock that increases uncertainty, PET leads ...
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作者：Efing, Matthias; Kampkotter, Patrick; Maurin, Vincent
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：Some bank regulators require that performance bonuses for risk managers (RMs) and for employees in front offices (FOs) be linked to distinct performance metrics, as correlated pay incentives could lead RMs to rubber-stamp risky investments. We theoretically show that a positive correlation between FOs and RMs is optimal for banks, but can be socially excessive in leveraged institutions. Using data from German bank employees, we show empirically that incentive pay is indeed positively correlate...
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作者：Bisetti, Emilio; She, Guoman; Zaldokas, Alminas
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; National University of Singapore
摘要：We show that U.S. firms cut imports by 31.8% when their international suppliers experience environmental and social (E&S) incidents. These trade cuts are larger for publicly listed U.S. importers facing high E&S investor pressure and lead to cross-country supplier reallocation, suggesting that E&S preferences in capital markets can be privately costly but have real effects for foreign suppliers. Larger trade cuts around the incident result in better supplier E&S performance in subsequent years...
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作者：Diebold, Lukas; Richter, Bjorn
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Rapid credit expansions predict lower output growth and banking crises, but does it matter who finances them? We identify the ultimate counterparties financing credit expansions in a panel of 33 advanced economies and find that foreign-financed household credit expansions predict lower GDP growth and higher crisis risk, but domestically financed credit expansions do not. Studying the mechanisms, we find that foreign-financed household credit expansions are accompanied by higher supply of forei...
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作者：Cai, Zhifeng
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly consuming and producing huge amounts of data. We propose a social learning model of AI, emphasizing a data-AI feedback loop: data quality affects AI productivity, which influences AI adoption and, consequently, the composition (AI versus human-generated) and quality of future data. Calibrated to evidence on synthetic training loops, the model predicts hump-shaped labor dynamics-short-term displacement that partially reverses as data quali...
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作者：Kacperczyk, Marcin; Peydro, Jose-Luis
作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Corporate Governance Institute; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We study how firm-level carbon emissions affect bank lending and real outcomes in a sample of global firms with syndicated loans. We exploit bank-level climate commitments as firm-level shocks to lending relationships, using firms' prior credit exposures to identify credit supply effects. Firms with higher emissions that previously borrowed from committed banks receive less bank credit. Evidence from lending volumes, prices, and within-firm-time loan-level data indicates a supply-side shift aw...
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作者：Cohen, Lauren H.; Gurun, Umit G.; Ozel, N. Bugra
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：We find widespread evidence that firms avoid overtime payments by strategically assigning managerial titles. Exploiting the exemption threshold under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), we find managerial titles increase almost fivefold just above the overtime pay cutoff, including suspect listings, such as Director of First Impressions for a role equivalent to Front-Desk Clerk. Avoidance is higher when firms have more bargaining power and are financially constrained. It is also more common i...
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作者：Agarwal, Vikas; Jiang, Wei; Luo, Yuchen; Zou, Hong
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Emory University; Oakland University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：During the 2020-2021 AAPI Hate, mutual funds led by female managers perceived as East Asian underperformed relative to other female managers. This effect is stronger in states with higher anti-Asian animus, among more actively managed funds, and when these managers hold sole or senior roles. Factors concurrent with COVID-19, including childcare challenges, concerns for overseas families, marketplace and workplace discrimination, and exposure to the Chinese economy, cannot explain the effect. U...
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作者：Borchert, Lea; De Haas, Ralph; Kirschenmann, Karolin; Schultz, Alison
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); University of Mannheim; KU Leuven; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz
摘要：We study how terminated correspondent banking relationships affect international trade. Drawing on firm-level export data from emerging Europe, we show that when local banks lose access to correspondent services, their corporate clients, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises, experience significant export declines. Firms only partially offset lost exports with higher domestic sales, resulting in lower total revenues and employment. Other firms cease operations entirely. These firm-lev...
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作者：Dottling, Robin; Levit, Doron; Malenko, Nadya; Rola-Janicka, Magdalena
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Boston College; Imperial College London
摘要：We study the interplay between a one person-one vote political system and a one share-one vote corporate governance regime. If shareholders push firms for more prosocial policies, political backlash may arise, undoing these initiatives. If public policy is frictionless, shareholder democracy becomes irrelevant: the political system fully offsets shareholder influence. With public policy frictions, prosocial corporations can mitigate regulatory shortcomings and enhance corporate public goods pr...
