When Two Become One: Foreign Capital and Household Credit Expansion
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Diebold, Lukas; Richter, Bjorn
署名单位：
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
刊物名称：
REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
ISSN/ISSBN：
0893-9454; 1465-7368
DOI：
10.1093/rfs/hhaf114
发表日期：
2026-08
页码：
2595-2642
关键词：
E32
E44
F34
G01
G15
G51
financial crises
housing finance
business cycles
current account
BANKING GLUT
booms
inflows
WEALTH
GROWTH
FLOWS
摘要：
Rapid credit expansions predict lower output growth and banking crises, but does it matter who finances them? We identify the ultimate counterparties financing credit expansions in a panel of 33 advanced economies and find that foreign-financed household credit expansions predict lower GDP growth and higher crisis risk, but domestically financed credit expansions do not. Studying the mechanisms, we find that foreign-financed household credit expansions are accompanied by higher supply of foreign capital (reflected in low credit spreads), are followed by elevated credit cycle reversal risk, and lead to higher debt service payments to foreigners which depress aggregate demand.
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