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作者：Diana, Alex; Matechou, Eleni; Griffin, Jim; Johnston, Alison
作者单位：University of Kent; University of London; University College London; Cornell University
摘要：Environmental changes in recent years have been linked to phenological shifts which in turn are linked to the survival of species. The work in this paper is motivated by capture-recapture data on blackcaps collected by the British Trust for Ornithology as part of the Constant Effort Sites monitoring scheme. Blackcaps overwinter abroad and migrate to the UK annually for breeding purposes. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach for expressing the bivariate density of individual arriv...
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作者：Fisher, Jared D.; Puelz, David W.; Carvalho, Carlos M.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This paper considers the problem of modeling a firm's expected return as a nonlinear function of its observable characteristics. We investigate whether theoretically-motivated monotonicity constraints on characteristics and non-stationarity of the conditional expectation function provide statistical and economic benefit. We present an interpretable model that has similar out-of-sample performance to black-box machine learning methods. With this model, the data provide support for monotonicity ...
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作者：Mohler, George; McGrath, Erin; Buntain, Cody; LaFree, Gary
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Purdue University in Indianapolis; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; New Jersey Institute of Technology; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We consider the problem of modeling and clustering heterogeneous event data arising from coupled conflict event and social media data sets. In this setting conflict events trigger responses on social media, and, at the same time, signals of grievance detected in social media may serve as leading indicators for subsequent conflict events. For this purpose we introduce the Hawkes Binomial Topic Model (HBTM) where marks, Tweets and conflict event descriptions are represented as bags of words foll...
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作者：Shan, Qianqian; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.
作者单位：Iowa State University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：Warranty return data from repairable systems, such as home appliances, lawn mowers, computers and automobiles, result in recurrent event data. The nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model is used widely to describe such data. Seasonality in the repair frequencies and other variabilities, however, complicate the modeling of recurrent event data. Not much work has been done to address the seasonality, and this paper provides a general approach for the application of NHPP models with dynamic c...
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作者：Shi, Peng; Zhao, Zifeng
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Notre Dame
摘要：In actuarial research a task of particular interest and importance is to predict the loss cost for individual risks so that informative decisions are made in various insurance operations such as underwriting, ratemaking and capital management. The loss cost is typically viewed to follow a compound distribution where the summation of the severity variables is stopped by the frequency variable. A challenging issue in modeling such outcomes is to accommodate the potential dependence between the n...
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作者：Cheng, David; Ayyagari, Rajeev; Signorovitch, James
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Massachusetts General Hospital; Analysis Group Inc.
摘要：Indirect comparisons of treatment-specific outcomes across separate studies often inform decision making in the absence of head-to-head randomized comparisons. Differences in baseline characteristics between study populations may introduce confounding bias in such comparisons. Matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) (Pharmacoeconomics 28 (2010) 935-945) has been used to adjust for differences in observed baseline covariates when the individual patient-level data (IPD) are available for on...
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作者：Jeong, Seok-Oh; Choi, Dongseok; Jang, Woncheol
作者单位：Hankuk University Foreign Studies; Oregon Health & Science University; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis (AAV) is extremely heterogeneous in clinical presentation and involves multiple organ systems. While the clinical presentation of AAV is diverse, we hypothesized that all AAV share common pathways and tested the hypothesis based on three different microarray studies of peripheral leukocytes, sinus and orbital inflammation disease. For the hypothesis testing we developed a two-component semiparametric mixture model to estimate the local ...
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作者：Mayer, Imke; Sverdrup, Erik; Gauss, Tobias; Moyer, Jean-Denis; Wager, Stefan; Josse, Julie
作者单位：Stanford University; Assistance Publique Hopitaux Paris (APHP); Universite Paris Cite; Hopital Universitaire Beaujon - APHP; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSTA Paris; Universite Paris Cite
摘要：Missing attributes are ubiquitous in causal inference, as they are in most applied statistical work. In this paper we consider various sets of assumptions under which causal inference is possible despite missing attributes and discuss corresponding approaches to average treatment effect estimation, including generalized propensity score methods and multiple imputation. Across an extensive simulation study, we show that no single method systematically outperforms others. We find, however, that ...
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作者：Camerlenghi, Federico; Dumitrascu, Bianca; Ferrari, Federico; Engelhardt, Barbara E.; Favaro, Stefano
作者单位：University of Milano-Bicocca; Institute for Advanced Study - USA; Duke University; Princeton University; University of Turin
摘要：The problem of maximizing cell type discovery under budget constraints is a fundamental challenge for the collection and analysis of single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. In this paper we introduce a simple, computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian nonparametric sequential approach to optimize the budget allocation when designing a large-scale experiment for the collection of scRNA-seq data for the purpose of, but not limited to, creating cell atlases. Our approach relies on the ...
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作者：Stallrich, Jonathan; Islam, Md Nazmul; Staicu, Ana-Maria; Crouch, Dustin; Pan, Lizhi; Huang, He
作者单位：North Carolina State University; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Tianjin University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; North Carolina State University
摘要：Robotic hand prostheses require a controller to decode muscle contraction information, such as electromyogram (EMG) signals, into the user's desired hand movement. State-of-the-art decoders demand extensive training, require data from a large number of EMG sensors and are prone to poor predictions. Biomechanical models of a single movement degree-of-freedom tell us that relatively few muscles, and, hence, fewer EMG sensors are needed to predict movement. We propose a novel decoder based on a d...
