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作者：Kunihama, Tsuyoshi; Li, Zehang Richard; Clark, Samuel J.; McCormick, Tyler H.
作者单位：Kwansei Gakuin University; Yale University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease epidemiology. Verbal autopsy (VA) surveys are increasingly used in such settings to collect information on the signs, symptoms and medical history of people who have recently died. This article develops a novel Bayesian method for estimation of population distributions o...
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作者：Soltoft-Jensen, Aleksander; Heide-Jorgensen, Mads Peter; Ditlevsen, Susanne
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Greenland Institute of Natural Resources
摘要：Obtaining an adequate description of the behaviour of narwhals in a pristine environment is important to understand natural behaviour as well as providing the means to determine potential changes in behaviour directly or indirectly caused by human activity. Based on Acousonde (TM) data from five narwhals in Scoresby Sound, this paper aims at modelling buzzing and calling rates of East Greenland narwhals as functions of time, space and, possibly, autoregressive memory. Both buzzing and calling ...
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作者：Spencer, Neil A.; Murray, Jared S.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：When a latent shoeprint is discovered at a crime scene, forensic analysts inspect it for distinctive patterns of wear such as scratches and holes (known as accidentals) on the source shoe's sole. If its accidentals correspond to those of a suspect's shoe, the print can be used as forensic evidence to place the suspect at the crime scene. The strength of this evidence depends on the random match probability-the chance that a shoe chosen at random would match the crime scene print's accidentals....
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作者：Cunen, Celine; Walloe, Lars; Hjort, Nils Lid
作者单位：University of Oslo; University of Oslo
摘要：A central point of disagreement, in certain long-standing discussions about a particular whaling dataset in the Scientific Committee of the International Whaling Commission, has directly involved model selection issues for linear mixed effect models. The biological question under discussion is associated with a clearly defined parameter of primary interest, a focus parameter, which makes model selection with the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) more appropriate than other selection methods....
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作者：Ruiz, Francisco J. R.; Athey, Susan; Blei, David M.
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Stanford University; Columbia University
摘要：We develop SHOPPER, a sequential probabilistic model of shopping data. SHOPPER uses interpretable components to model the forces that drive how a customer chooses products; in particular, we designed SHOPPER to capture how items interact with other items. We develop an efficient posterior inference algorithm to estimate these forces from large-scale data, and we analyze a large dataset from a major chain grocery store. We are interested in answering counterfactual queries about changes in pric...
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作者：MacDonald, Iain L.
作者单位：University of Cape Town
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作者：Reich, Brian J.; Guan, Yawen; Fourches, Denis; Warren, Joshua L.; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Chang, Howard H.
作者单位：North Carolina State University; University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; North Carolina State University; Yale University; Emory University; Emory University
摘要：Humans are concurrently exposed to chemically, structurally and toxicologically diverse chemicals. A critical challenge for environmental epidemiology is to quantify the risk of adverse health outcomes resulting from exposures to such chemical mixtures and to identify which mixture constituents may be driving etiologic associations. A variety of statistical methods have been proposed to address these critical research questions. However, they generally rely solely on measured exposure and heal...
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作者：Scharwaechter, Erik; Mueller, Emmanuel
作者单位：University of Bonn
摘要：Hate speech is ubiquitous on the Web. Recently, the offline causes that contribute to online hate speech have received increasing attention. A recurring question is whether the occurrence of extreme events offline systematically triggers bursts of hate speech online, indicated by peaks in the volume of hateful social media posts. Formally, this question translates into measuring the association between a sparse event series and a time series. We propose a novel statistical methodology to measu...
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作者：Banerjee, Trambak; Bhattacharya, Bhaswar B.; Mukherjee, Gourab
作者单位：University of Kansas; University of Pennsylvania; University of Southern California
摘要：An important problem in contemporary immunology studies based on single-cell protein expression data is to determine whether cellular expressions are remodeled postinfection by a pathogen. One natural approach for detecting such changes is to use nonparametric two-sample statistical tests. However, in single-cell studies direct application of these tests is often inadequate, because single-cell level expression data from processed uninfected populations often contain attributes of several late...
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作者：Hung, Kenneth; Fithian, William
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Large-scale replication studies like the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P) provide invaluable systematic data on scientific replicability, but most analyses and interpretations of the data fail to agree on the definition of replicability and disentangle the inexorable consequences of known selection bias from competing explanations. We discuss three concrete definitions of replicability based on: (1) whether published findings about the signs of effects are mostly correct, (2) how eff...
