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作者：D'Arcy, Eleanor; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Joly, Amelie; Sifnioti, Dafni E.
作者单位：Lancaster University
摘要：Reliable estimates of sea-level return-levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea-levels that is the first to capture seasonality, interannual variations and longer term changes. We use a joint probabilities method, with skew-surge and peak-tide as two sea-level components. The tidal regime is predictable, but skew-surges are stochastic. We present a statistical model for skew-surges, wher...
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作者：Heffernan, Claire; Peng, Roger; Gentner, Drew R.; Koehler, Kirsten; Datta, Abhirup
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Yale University; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：Low-cost air pollution sensors, offering hyperlocal characterization of pollutant concentrations, are becoming increasingly prevalent in environ-mental and public health research. However, low-cost air pollution data can be noisy, biased by environmental conditions, and usually need to be field-calibrated by collocating low-cost sensors with reference-grade instru-ments. We show, theoretically and empirically, that the common procedure of regression-based calibration, using collocated data, sy...
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作者：Xiang, Siqi; Zhang, Wan; Liu, Siyao; Hoadley, Katherine A.; Perou, Charles M.; Zhang, Kai; Marron, J. S.
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：In The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data set, there are many inter-esting nonlinear dependencies between pairs of genes that reveal important relationships and subtypes of cancer. Such genomic data analysis requires a rapid, powerful, and interpretable detection process, especially in a high -dimensional environment. We study the nonlinear patterns among the expres-sion of pairs of genes from TCGA using a powerful tool called binary expan-sion testing. We find many nonlinear patterns, some of wh...
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作者：Walsh, Stephen; Ferreira, Marco A. R.; Higdon, David; Zick, Stephanie
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing techniques may struggle with extreme events or use a 30-day training window that will not adequately characterize the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone forecast. We propose a novel approach that leverages information from past storm events, using a hierarchic...
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作者：Ma, Siyuan; Li, Hongzhe
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Longitudinal microbiome studies can help delineate true biological signals from the high interindividual variability that is common in microbiome data. However, there are few methods available for unsupervised dimension reduction of time course microbial abundance observations. Existing methods do not fully observe the distribution characteristics of such data types, namely, zero inflation, compositionality, and overdispersion. We present a tensor decomposition model and a semiparametric quasi...
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作者：Xu, Zhixing; Bradley, Jonathan R.; Sinha, Debajyoti
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：Precise estimation of daily fine particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 microns (PM2.5) and mortality in the U.S. is an important research challenge in public health because high levels of PM2.5 have been linked to several serious health problems, including lung disease, cardiovascular disease, and stroke. This motivates us to develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for bivariate spatial data to obtain precise spatial predictions of two types of re-sponses, continuous skewed PM2.5 levels...
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作者：Papakostas, Demetrios; Hahn, P. Richard; Murry, Jared; Zhou, Frank; Gerakos, Joseph
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Pennsylvania; Dartmouth College
摘要：It is widely speculated that auditors' public forecasts of bankruptcy are, at least in part, self-fulfilling prophecies in the sense that they actually cause bankruptcies that would not have otherwise occurred. This conjecture is hard to prove, however, because the strong association between bankruptcies and bankruptcy forecasts could simply indicate that auditors are skillful forecasters with unique access to highly predictive covariates. In this paper we investigate the causal effect of bank...
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作者：Li, Sai; Cai, Tianxi; Duan, Rui
作者单位：Renmin University of China; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
摘要：The limited representation of minorities and disadvantaged populations in large-scale clinical and genomics research poses a significant barrier to translating precision medicine research into practice. Prediction models are likely to underperform in underrepresented populations due to heterogeneity across populations, thereby exacerbating known health disparities. To ad -dress this issue, we propose FETA, a two-way data integration method that leverages a federated transfer learning approach ...
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作者：Gibson, Graham C.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Sheldon, Daniel
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic emerged in late December 2019. In the first six months of the global outbreak, the U.S. reported more cases and deaths than any other country in the world. Effective modeling of the course of the pandemic can help assist with public health resource planning, intervention efforts, and vaccine clinical trials. However, building applied forecasting models presents unique challenges during a pandemic. First, case data available to models in real time represent a nonstationary...
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作者：Holzmann, Hajo; Klar, Bernhard
作者单位：Philipps University Marburg; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
摘要：Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity Y, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by high-frequency finance, in this paper we investigate how proxies Y similar to for Y- say volatility proxies-which are observed together with Y can be utilized to improve forecast comparisons. We extend previous results on robustness of loss functions for the mean to ge...
