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作者：Shi-Jun, Samantha; Shand, Lyndsay; Li, Bo
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Sandia National Laboratories
摘要：Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and longlasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the...
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作者：Deutsch, Isabella; Ross, Gordon J.
作者单位：University of Edinburgh
摘要：Product cannibalisation in the marketplace refers to the decrease in the sales of one product due to competition from another product. We examine this phenomenon in a wholesale data set provided by a major international company. We use a multivariate Hawkes process where each product is represented by a dimension, with cross-inhibition effects that model product cannibalisation. To implement the Hawkes process with inhibition, we resolve challenges regarding the integration of the intensity fu...
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作者：Chattopadhyay, Shounak; Engel, Stephanie M.; Dunson, David
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Duke University; Duke University
摘要：There is abundant interest in assessing the joint effects of multiple exposures on human health. This is often referred to as the mixtures problem in environmental epidemiology and toxicology. Classically, studies have examined the adverse health effects of different chemicals one at a time, but there is concern that certain chemicals may act together to amplify each other's effects. Such amplification is referred to as synergistic interaction, while chemicals that inhibit each other's effects...
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作者：MacBride, Cara; Davies, Vinny; Lee, Duncan
作者单位：University of Glasgow
摘要：In spatial areal unit data with missing or suppressed values, it is desirable to create models that are able to predict observations that are not available. Typically, statistical spatial smoothing models fitted in a Bayesian hierarchical framework are used for this purpose, which capture any unexplained residual spatial autocorrelation in the data through conditional autoregressive (CAR) or spatial autoregressive (SAR) priors applied to a set of random effects. In contrast, typical machine le...
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作者：Wang, Jiping; Li, Rong; Chang, Wei-Shan; Hsiao, Kai-Yuan; Shia, Ben-Chang; Ma, Shuangge
作者单位：Yale University; Fu Jen Catholic University; Fu Jen Catholic University
摘要：The analysis of clinical treatment measures has been extensively conducted and can facilitate more effective resource management and assist in better understanding diseases. Most of the existing analyses have been focused on a single disease or many diseases combined. Partly motivated by the successes of gene-centric and phenotypic human disease network (HDN) research, there has been growing interest in network analysis of clinical treatment measures. However, existing studies have been limite...
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作者：Anakok, Emre; Barbillon, Pierre; Fontaine, Colin; Thebault, Elisa
作者单位：AgroParisTech; INRAE; Universite Paris Saclay; Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Sorbonne Universite; INRAE; Universite Paris-Est-Creteil-Val-de-Marne (UPEC); Universite Paris Cite; CNRS - Institute of Ecology & Environment (INEE)
摘要：The structure of a bipartite interaction network can be described by providing a clustering for each of the two types of nodes. Such clusterings are outputted by fitting a latent block model (LBM) on an observed network that comes from a sampling of species interactions. However, the sampling is limited and possibly uneven. This may jeopardize the fit of the LBM and then the description of the structure of the network by detecting structures resulting from the sampling and not from actual unde...
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作者：Passino, Francesco sanna; Mantziou, Anastasia; Ghani, Daniyar; Thiede, Philip; Bevington, Ross; Heard, Nicholas a.
作者单位：Imperial College London; University of Warwick
摘要：Cyber systems are under near-constant threat from intrusion attempts. Attacks types vary, but each attempt typically has a specific underlying intent, and the perpetrators are typically groups of individuals with similar objectives. Clustering attacks appearing to share a common intent is very valuable to threat-hunting experts. This article explores Dirichlet distribution topic models for clustering terminal session commands collected from honeypots, which are special network hosts designed t...
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作者：Bargagli-Stoffi, Falco J.; Tortu, Costanza; Forastiere, Laura
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna; Yale University
摘要：The bulk of causal inference studies rule out the presence of interference between units. However, in many real-world scenarios, units are interconnected by social, physical, or virtual ties, and the effect of the treatment can spill from one unit to other connected individuals in the network. In this paper, we develop a machine learning method that uses tree-based algorithms and a Horvitz-Thompson estimator to assess the heterogeneity of treatment and spillover effects with respect to individ...
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作者：Huang, Melody
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：Estimating externally valid causal effects is a foundational problem in the social and biomedical sciences. Generalizing or transporting causal estimates from an experimental sample to a target population of interest relies on an overlap (or positivity) assumption between the experimental sample and the target population. In practice, having full overlap between an experimental sample and a target population can be implausible. In the following paper, we introduce a framework for considering e...
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作者：Ibrahim, Shibal; Radchenko, Peter; Ben-David, Emanuel; Mazumder, Rahul
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Sydney; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：In this paper we consider the problem of predicting survey response rates using a family of flexible and interpretable nonparametric models. The study is motivated by the U.S. Census Bureau's well-known ROAM application, which uses a linear regression model trained on the U.S. Census Planning Database data to identify hard-to-survey areas. A crowdsourcing competition (Public Opin. Q. 81 (2016) 144-156) organized more than 10 years ago revealed that machine learning methods, based on ensembles ...
