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作者：Zens, Gregor; Thalheimer, Lisa
作者单位：International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
摘要：Understanding the short-run dynamics of conflict and forced displacement is crucial for the design of effective policy responses, yet quantitative analyses in this realm are sparse. This is primarily due to the scarcity of high-frequency displacement data and methodological challenges arising when modeling imperfect data collected in conflict zones. Addressing both issues, we develop a Bayesian panel regression model to assess the shortterm impact of conflict on displacement in Somalia, utiliz...
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作者：Jiang, Lei; Peng, Liang; Qin, Hongling; Yang, Bingduo
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Kent State University; Kent State University Kent; Kent State University Salem; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Auburn University System; Auburn University; Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
摘要：The predictability test is critical in developing momentum trading strategies. In time-series momentum (TSM) tests via linear predictive regressions, the classical and Newey-West t-tests have size distortions because of endogeneity and a lack of enough finite moments. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a new test that features a model of the error correlations, weighted least squares estimation, and the random weighted bootstrap method. Simulations confirm its accurate size and good p...
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作者：Maier, Eva-Maria; Stoecker, Almond; Fitzenberger, Bernd; Greven, Sonja
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; University of Erlangen Nuremberg
摘要：Motivated by research on gender identity norms and the distribution of the woman's share in a couple's total labor income, we consider additive regression models for densities as responses with scalar covariates. To preserve nonnegativity and integration to one under vector space operations, we formulate the model for densities in a Bayes Hilbert space, which allows to not only consider continuous densities but also, for example, discrete or mixed densities. Mixed ones occur in our application...
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作者：McKennan, Chris; Sang, Zhe; Shi, Yi
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
摘要：Nanobodies are small antibody fragments derived from camelids that selectively bind to antigens. These proteins have marked physicochemical properties that support advanced therapeutics, including possible treatments for SARS-CoV-2. To realize their potential, bottom-up proteomics via liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has been proposed to identify antigen-specific nanobodies at the proteome scale, where a critical component of this pipeline is matching nanobody peptides...
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作者：Seymour, Rowland; Nyarko-Agyei, Albert; McCabe, Helen; Severn, Katie; Sirl, David; Kypraios, Theodore; Taylor, Adam
作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of Nottingham; University of Nottingham; University of Nottingham
摘要：Forcing someone into marriage against their will is a violation of their human rights. In 2021, the county of Nottinghamshire, U.K., launched a strategy to tackle forced marriage and violence against women and girls. We set out to map the risk of forced marriage across the county to support the strategy and enable the development of local interventions. However, there was no centralised database for forced marriage in the county and carrying out a survey using standard survey methods was unlik...
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作者：Li, Lexin
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作者：Nath, Shanjukta; Warren, Keith; Paul, Subhadeep
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：We investigate peer role model influence on successful graduation from therapeutic communities (TCs) for substance abuse and criminal behavior. We use data from three TCs that kept records of exchanges of affirmations among residents and their precise entry and exit dates, allowing us to form peer networks and define a causal effect of interest. The role model effect measures the difference in the expected outcome of a resident (ego) who can observe one of their peers graduate before the ego's...
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作者：Pajor, Anna; Kwiatkowski, Lukasz; Wroblewska, Justyna
作者单位：Cracow University of Economics; Cracow University of Economics
摘要：We check whether taking into account long-term relationships in heteroscedastic VAR models affects their predictive performance before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, we examine whether the predictions can benefit from suspending posterior updates at some point. Empirical analysis covers five different economies and uses Bayesian VAR/VEC models with volatility specifications combining stochastic volatility and GARCH processes. It emerges that, while accounting for cointegration relatio...
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作者：Cohn, Eric R.; Song, Zirui; Zubizarreta, Jose R.
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Harvard University; Harvard Medical School; Harvard University; Harvard Medical School; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：Gun violence is a major source of injury and death in the United States. However, relatively little is known about the effects of firearm injuries on survivors and their family members and how these effects vary. To study these questions and, more generally, to address a gap in the methodological causal inference literature, we present a framework for the study of effect modification or heterogeneous treatment effects in difference-in-differences designs. We implement a new matching technique,...
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作者：Palmer, Glenn; Herring, Amy H.; Dunson, David B.
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：Developmental epidemiology commonly focuses on assessing the association between multiple early life exposures and childhood health. Statistical analyses of data from such studies focus on inferring the contributions of individual exposures, while also characterizing time-varying and interacting effects. Such inferences are made more challenging by correlations among exposures, nonlinearity, and the curse of dimensionality. Motivated by studying the effects of prenatal bisphenol A (BPA) and ph...
